Every week, Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield put together the Touchdown Wire NFL Matchup Podcast, and here are the matchup notes from the Week 13 edition — tape and statistical notes that may bring some insight to your Week 13 NFL viewing!
The Touchdown Wire Week 13 Matchup Podcast with Doug Farrar and Mark Schofield
Falcons at Saints
This could be an unexpected defensive battle. We know how good the Saints’ defense is, but here are Atlanta’s DVOA splits this season
Pass defense DVOA — Weeks 1-9: 27th. Weeks 10-12: 5th
Run defense DVOA — Weeks 1-9: 19th. Weeks 10-12: 8th
Overall defensive DVOA — Weeks 1-9: 18th. Weeks 10-12: Third. Only the Saints and Steelers are better in the second half of the season.
Deion Jones’ pick-six against Derek Carr — the Raiders tried all kinds of pre-snap motion for placement issues and indicators, the Falcons just switched along the formation to avoid that, and they played straight man regardless. Raheem Morris is doing work. Second season in a row they’ve had a major uptick in defensive performance when Morris was more in charge of the defense. They may want to play more zone against Taysom Hill, but this is one of the NFL’s few defenses that might be in better shape playing even more man coverage in general.
Lions at Bears
Last time the Bears and Lions faced off, it was Week 1, and yet another of Detroit’s late-game collapses. Trubisky threw three touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, all against Detroit’s patented man coverage.
The Lions play more man coverage than anybody else. Why are they so bad at it?
Trubisky had a three-touchdown game against the Packers last Sunday, but also two picks, and even the touchdowns were kind of ugly. On both picks to Darnell Savage, Trubisky had the intermediate dig wide open, and he went with the deep ball in double/triple coverage instead.
Chicago’s defense has gone from third in pass defense DVOA in the first half of the season to 31st since Week 10. That’s against supercharged Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers with a bye in-between, but not a great trend for a team that’s lost five straight and has no help from the offensive side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers’ touchdown pass to Davante Adams vs. Chicago had Robert Quinn handing Adams off to Roquan Smith. Any time you can use a defensive end to hand off to a linebacker against the game’s best receiver, you just gotta take that opportunity.
I mean, WTF.
If you want to know why the Bears have plummeted from third to 31st in Defensive DVOA in the second half of the season, I give you Robert Quinn handing Davante Adams off to Roquan Smith in the red zone! pic.twitter.com/8YSj29RtsJ
— Doug Farrar (@NFL_DougFarrar) December 3, 2020
Browns at Titans
Thinking here of the 1978 game between the Chiefs and Bengals in which Marv Levy dusted off the Wing-T and ran the ball 69 times. If I’m Kevin Stefanski, this might be my game plan the rest of the season. Browns and Titans are both about league average in Adjusted Line Yards, running back yards, and stuff rate, so this could be pure bully-ball.
How the 1978 Chiefs used the Wing-T to set the NFL record for carries in a game
Baker Mayfield: Still very fidgety in the pocket — puts his eyes down and then comes back up, double-clutches a ton, doesn’t seem comfortable even when he has a clean pocket. The red zone incompletion to Rashard Higgins against the Jaguars might be the most frustrating incompletion I’ve seen all season. Mayfield has Higgins on a slant AND Kareem Hunt wide open on a Texas route in the middle of the field, overthrew Higgins, and that was that. Did have two red-zone touchdowns vs. Jacksonville, but still… this is a problem. He’s missing wide-open guys.
Bengals at Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa was limited in practice this week (hand) and may be ready to go here. Gametime decision. What does Chan Gailey need to do to help him get past that bad game against the Broncos, especially now that he’s had an extra week to think about it? Get him in favorable RPO situations, easy first reads, get him comfortable and go from there.
Jaguars at Vikings
Kirk Cousins, reigning NFC Offensive Player of the Week! Since Week 10, Cousins has completed 81 of 11 attempts for 913 yards, 8.2 yards per attempt, eight touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 117.4. Only Deshaun Watson and Aaron Rodgers have higher ratings in that time. Cousins over that time: 3TD and 0INT with play-action, 5TD and 1INT without. Kubiak has been saying things about using play-action more, and it appears to be working. But either way, we’re getting Good Kirk Cousins right now, and rookie receiver Justin Jefferson is playing out of his mind. You rarely sea a first-year receiver with Jefferson’s understanding of the nuances of the position.
Raiders at Jets
Derek Carr had his worst game of the season last Sunday against a Falcons defense that has the personnel and schemes to play as fast as they want, but under control. 22 of 34 for 215 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick-six. Is it a “burn the tape” game, or are there worrisome signs? I think there aren’t a lot of defenses that can play the ways Atlanta wants to play, and the Jets certainly don’t have one of them. Jon Gruden might ease back on the longer-developing pass plays, but I don’t see that game as a harbinger of doom.
Colts at Texans
Obviously, Deshaun Watson is playing out of his mind this season, but now that Will Fuller has a six-game PED suspension, is this a problem, especially against the Colts’ pass defense? Fuller was on the field for 384 snaps, and off the field on 48 snaps. When he’s off the field, Watson’s YPA drops from 9.0 to 7.8, and his INT% jumps from 1.3% to 2.3%. Now, they have had an uptick in 12 personnel with Fuller off the field, so some of this is schematic and a game-plan thing, but Fuller gives you a lot not only on deep balls, but the ability to take the top off. Could be a reductive game, and Houston has Indy/Bears/Indy over their next three games. Could get interesting for that offense. DeForest Buckner is officially off the COVID list, and boy, did the Colts miss him against Derrick Henry.
Rams at Cardinals
Sean McVay giving it to Jared Goff this week after the 49ers game about taking care of the ball, which seems to be to be just a coach getting fed up with his quarterback’s limitations, because I didn’t see anything different here. Goff is a slow processor, which makes him a slow mover, and a slow reader. This, to me, is at the root of the Rams’ decreasing effectiveness with play-action — in 2018, Goff’s PA splits were the most dramatic in the league, and now, everything is just meh. So, he’s been demolished by Miami’s Cover-0 blitzes and San Francisco’s Cover-1 looks, and here come the Cardinals, who play a lot of man, but can be very balanced. Goff is better in PA on three- and five-step concepts — you don’t want him taking a seven-step drop where he turns his eyes back to the field later in the down and has to decipher what a defense is doing at that point.
Great piece from Rams Wire, our sister site:
Rams film room: Breaking down Jared Goff’s performance vs. 49ers
Looking ahead, the Rams can’t get out of Goff’s inexplicable contract extension until 2022 — in 2021, a release would leave them with $49.7 million in dead cap. Not gonna happen when the projected cap goes from $198.2 million to about $175 million due to revenue shortfalls this season.
Eagles at Packers
I don’t really have anything else to say about Carson Wentz, except that Bill Walsh used to say that you could tell everything you needed to know about a quarterback by watching his feet, and if Bill Walsh was watching Carson Wentz’s footwork right now, there would be some F-bombs.
More of an overall question here — Both Doug Pederson and Matt Nagy are not really scheming their receivers open as much as you’d like — the Eagles are particularly dependent on isolation concepts that require receivers to get open. I don’t know why any offensive play-designer does this against modern defenses and their complexities, but is this the chicken or the egg: Is the coach hamstrung by the quarterback’s inability to see things coming open, or are the flawed quarterbacks further affected by unfavorable route concepts?
Re: Matt LaFleur — should we start talking about him as a play designer in the same way we talk about Shanahan? I remember when Dan Orlovsky told me that Kyle Shanahsn is the NFL’s “best mathematician” in how he uses motion and play action to remove defenders and get ideal matchups for his quarterback. I’m seeing the same things from LaFleur. Not bad when you have Aaron Rodgers running things.
Eagles have 125 snaps in Cover-1 this season, fifth-highest in the league behind the Lions, Titans, Cardinals, and Falcons. They have allowed nine touchdowns and have no interceptions in Cover-1. Aaron Rodgers vs. Cover-1 this season: 59 of 98 for 874 yards, 506 air yards, 12 touchdowns, two interceptions.
Also, per a report from Jeff McLane of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Doug Pederson is giving up more of the play-calling duties to passing game coordinator Press Taylor, who will probably get a head coaching shot at some point. Big name in front offices. Also, Senior offensive assistant Rich Scangarello is calling more plays in two-minute situations. Taylor got more of a shot after the Eagles went three-and-out on their first five possessions against the Seahawks.
Patriots at Chargers
Patriots did what they did against Lamar Jackson against Kyler Murray — play from the outside in with overhang defenders and more of a gap-spy front than a pure pass-rush. Herbert presents a different challenge in that he’s mobile, but not in the same way. Does Anthony Lynn vs. Bill Belichick present the NFL’s widest possible gap in situational football acumen? Play-calling and clock management are no bueno for Lynn’s team this season. When you blow five double–digit leads, you are either fired, or you are about to get fired.
Bill Belichick had a lot of good things to say about Justin Herbert this week, especially his ability to move to his second and third reads, and decipher split coverage (man side/zone side). Herbert has been dominant against man coverage this season and under pressure, so it will be interesting to see how the Patriots play him. They are playing a bit more Cover-3 and split safety this season.
Broncos at Chiefs
I don’t have anything to say about Denver’s QB situation that hasn’t already been said. Could be Blake Bortles, could be Kyle Shurmur, might be Bubby Brister. Who the hell knows. I will be interested to see if Denver runs match blitzes against Mahomes — worked in 2018, maybe now not so much. Different staff and all, but it will be interesting to see how the Broncos look to bracket Hill and cover Kelce underneath — because if there’s one thing we re-learned from the Chiefs-Bucs game, it’s that if you single-cover Tyreek Hill on vertical routes, your defense going to die. Denver’s defense does play match well and can disguise decently.
Washington at Steelers
Is Big Ben turning into Philip Rivers? I like to pause a quarterback’s tape right before he hits his back foot on a dropback and then look at what is open or is coming open. Ben doesn’t seem to trust what he’s seeing, and I’m wondering if there isn’t a gap between what his brain tells him to do and what his arm can achieve from a timing and velocity standpoint. Deep passing this season — 16 completions in 55 attempts for 508 yards, seven touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 74.8. In 2018 his last healthy season, through Week 13: 20 of 59 for 788 yards, 12 touchdowns, 2INT, and a passer rating of 107.9.
With Bud Dupree out the rest of the season due to injury, I wonder if the Steelers will put Cameron Heyward at right end — he has 142 snaps this season at right end, right LEO, or right outside linebacker. One of the NFL’s better multi-gap defensive linemen through the years; he’s just been inside more now because the Watt/Dupree duo has been so great. Can still make things miserable for any left guard to either shoulder.
Bills at 49ers
This is going to be interesting. 49ers are doing some interesting things on defense — it’s not just Cover-3 anymore. They killed Jared Goff with Cover-1 — both picks came off Cover-1 — and they’ll run Sherman everywhere from boundary corner to free safety. Effective multiplicity in coverage could still be a problem for Josh Allen. The bigger problem for the 49ers and Nick Mullens is that Buffalo’s secondary — particularly Tre’Davious White.– is turning things around.
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December 06, 2020 at 09:03PM
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