Waiver Wire Targets: Week 4
Fewer obvious adds are available this week. It seems like the good players with regular playing time are finally all getting rostered. While some rookies (Bohm, Garcia, and Carlson) just got promoted, I like some of the available veterans more. Also, the closer situations have calmed down.
As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers and hitters.
Hitters
- Jesse Winker: An everyday DH while leading the league in OBP (.484) and OPS (1.196).
- Nick Solak: He needs to be universally owned. He’s getting closer.
- Asdrúbal Cabrera: He’s now qualified at three positions, playing every day, and hitting .883 OPS with four bombs.
- Alec Bohm: Fantasy owners can hope Bohm can be Cabrera this season
- Dominic Smith: He’s been on fire over the last 14 days hitting .317/.396/.829 with five homers.
- Dylan Moore, Andres Gimenez, Victor Reyes, and Austin Slater: For those owners needing steals, here are your choices. I’d focus on Moore and Slater since they have a little extra pop. Gimenez has the highest upside for just stolen bases but doesn’t provide much else. Reyes is the boring guy who owners might get for the cheapest.
- Dylan Carlson: If for some reason, Carlson is just now an option to be added, the bidding is going to be high for him. I expect some team who still has some money left will drop 20% of their original budget on him. I’d not go too crazy since a few other bats are nearly as talented and could go a lot cheaper.
- Mike Tauchman and Clint Frazier: With Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the IL, it seems like playing time would open up for this pair in the outfield and at DH. The problem is that the Yankees have started Mike Ford (.513 OPS) in four of the last five games at DH. The pair’s fantasy value jumps but don’t expect full-time at-bats.
- Tyler O’Neill: I’m not sure how the playing time will workout here. Matt Carpenter and O’Neill should both be the DH and not in the field. I’m not 100% sure how much the Cardinals will play Carlson. I guessing fulltime, but they have screwed around with rookies before.
- Rio Ruiz: I almost ranked him above the outfielders. He’s in the top half of the lineup every day with six homers and a .950 OPS.
- Wilmer Flores: Steady everyday production.
- Maikel Franco: He hitting homers even though his plate discipline has tanked (8% BB% to 3% BB%, 14% K% to 22% K%)
- Luis Garcia: I have no idea what to expect from him. As a 19-year-old in AA last season, he hit four homers. stole 11 bags, rarely walked (3% BB%), and hit .257 in 553 PA. Complete gamble.
- Todd Frazier: Boring production but playing every day.
- Mitch Moreland: Starting with Moreland, the rest of the hitters are either significantly lacking in playing or talent. For example, Moreland sits against lefties.
- Jesús Aguilar: He’s just hitting against lefties.
- Marwin Gonzalez: He’s fine. His one great season was trash can aided.
- Jake Cronenworth: He’s still hitting and has multiple position qualifications, but just not starting all the time.
- Pedro Severino: Severino starts my catcher ranking that I have no faith in. In all fairness, they are all streaming options based on the hot hand or having seven or more games. Severio is hitting .304 with four homers.
- Austin Nola: Not playing 1B anymore but is still hitting (.858 OPS).
- Austin Romine: He’s been decent with a .304 AVG and two homers.
- James McCann: While the .343/.410/.600 triple slash looks great, he’s not playing because of Yasmani Grandal.
- Max Stassi: He’s showing some signs of life with 4 HR.
- Martín Maldonado: It’s gotten ugly with a .208 AVG.
- Francisco Cervelli-Pass
- Jay Bruce: Being ranked under the catchers is all a fantasy owner should need to know.
Starters
- Framber Valdez: He’s been great this season and needs to be owned in all formats.
- Pablo López: He’s riding an elite change to elite status.
- Tony Gonsolin: He’s now starting for the Dodgers since he’s not allowed a run this season with a 9.3 K/9.
- Touki Toussaint: A two-start week versus the Nationals and Phillies. While he has a LOB% driven 7.27 ERA, all the rest of his stats look borderline elite (11.9 K/9, 3.21 xFIP). Buy now because his price will only go up if he’s decent in the two-step.
- Alex Cobb: His splitter is back as seen by his 65% GB%.
- Kevin Gausman: Bad team and extremely flyball prone (34% GB%). While his 11.9 K/9 is pretty, he can only be started at home. Think Matthew Boyd starter kit.
- Brad Keller: A new slider along with throwing his fastball less has his value up.
- Justus Sheffield: His starts have been all over the place. Four runs in three innings to a shutout through six in another. In his last start, he threw slider more (34% to 45% during the season).
- Logan Webb: He’s OK in the right matchups.
- Alex Young: If he wasn’t homer prone (2.6 HR/9), I think he’d be getting more love with the 9.6 K/9 and 50% GB%.
- Cal Quantrill: He been good (2.92 ERA, 9.5 K/9) and if starting, a streamable option.
- Tommy Milone: The breakout is on hold after the Nationals lit him up on Friday.
- Adam Plutko: Someone has to start now in Cleveland since 40% of the staff were selfish idiots.
- Zach Davies: Matchup only starter.
- Elieser Hernandez: There are flyball pitchers and then Hernandez is on another level this season with a 24% GB%. With a 9.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9, he’s another Matt Boyd starter kit. If Hernandez can limit the homers, he’ll look great, if not, his production will immediately head south.
- Brandon Bielak: I’m guessing his 1.76 ERA will explode quickly with just a 6.5 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9.
- Freddy Peralta: He should be used as a three-inning arm. Anything longer blows up, anything less is a waste.
- David Peterson: Sightly below average across the board.
- Kolby Allard: I need to see how he’s going to maintain a 0 HR/FB% with a 26% groundball rate.
- Trevor Williams: Pass
- Martín Pérez: God no.
Closers
- Rafael Montero: A good reliever with the closer’s role.
- Trevor Rosenthal: A good reliever with the closer’s role.
- Rowan Wick: A good reliever with most likely the closer’s role.
- Taylor Williams: A respectable reliever with the closer’s role.
- Ty Buttrey: A respectable reliever with most likely the closer’s role.
- Chad Green: A great reliever without the closer’s role.
- Jordan Romano: A great reliever without the closer’s role.
- Gregory Soto: A great reliever without the closer’s role.
- Tanner Rainey: A great reliever without the closer’s role.
- Joakim Soria: A good reliever without the closer’s role.
- Jonathan Hernandez: A good reliever without the closer’s role.
- Burch Smith: Forearm strain, on IL.
Free Agent Targets (CBS Ownership)
| Name | Last Week’s Ownership | Current Ownership | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Tauchman LF | 39% | 42% | 3% |
| Framber Valdez RP | 38% | 57% | 19% |
| Max StassiC | 35% | 41% | 6% |
| Tyler O’Neill LF | 35% | 37% | 2% |
| Asdrubal Cabrera 3B | 34% | 46% | 12% |
| Maikel Franco 3B | 34% | 39% | 5% |
| Rowan Wick RP | 34% | 38% | 4% |
| James McCannC | 33% | 36% | 3% |
| Pedro SeverinoC | 31% | 59% | 28% |
| Nick Solak DH | 31% | 38% | 7% |
| Justus Sheffield SP | 30% | 32% | 2% |
| Jesus Aguilar 1B | 29% | 47% | 18% |
| Pablo Lopez SP | 29% | 36% | 7% |
| Martin Perez SP | 29% | 33% | 4% |
| Trevor Rosenthal RP | 27% | 50% | 23% |
| Zach Davies SP | 26% | 58% | 32% |
| Mitch Moreland 1B | 26% | 38% | 12% |
| Alex Cobb SP | 26% | 33% | 7% |
| Martin MaldonadoC | 26% | 28% | 2% |
| David Peterson SP | 24% | 44% | 20% |
| Rafael Montero RP | 23% | 57% | 34% |
| Jesse Winker LF | 23% | 53% | 30% |
| Chad Green RP | 23% | 31% | 8% |
| Alec Bohm 3B | 22% | 43% | 21% |
| Touki Toussaint RP | 22% | 28% | 6% |
| Austin Nola 1B | 21% | 32% | 11% |
| Dominic Smith 1B | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Brad Keller SP | 20% | 33% | 13% |
| Kevin Gausman SP | 20% | 32% | 12% |
| Wilmer Flores 2B | 18% | 20% | 2% |
| Joakim Soria RP | 17% | 25% | 8% |
| Dylan Moore SS | 16% | 46% | 30% |
| Todd Frazier 3B | 15% | 20% | 5% |
| Ty Buttrey RP | 14% | 18% | 4% |
| Marwin Gonzalez RF | 13% | 20% | 7% |
| Freddy Peralta RP | 13% | 16% | 3% |
| Rio Ruiz 3B | 12% | 15% | 3% |
| Clint Frazier RF | 11% | 35% | 24% |
| Brandon Bielak SP | 11% | 30% | 19% |
| Jonathan Hernandez RP | 11% | 18% | 7% |
| Trevor Williams SP | 11% | 15% | 4% |
| Austin RomineC | 10% | 15% | 5% |
| Elieser Hernandez SP | 10% | 16% | 6% |
| Jake Cronenworth SS | 9% | 13% | 4% |
| Victor ReyesCF | 9% | 12% | 3% |
| Taylor Williams RP | 9% | 15% | 6% |
| Tony Gonsolin SP | 9% | 15% | 6% |
| Andres Gimenez SS | 8% | 17% | 9% |
| Jay Bruce LF | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Kolby Allard SP | 7% | 11% | 4% |
| Logan Webb SP | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| Luis Garcia SS | 6% | 9% | 3% |
| Adam Plutko SP | 5% | 15% | 10% |
| Cal Quantrill SP | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Jordan Romano RP | 4% | 11% | 7% |
| Alex Young SP | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| Tommy Milone RP | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Gregory Soto RP | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Burch Smith RP | 3% | 11% | 8% |
| Tanner Rainey RP | 3% | 6% | 3% |
| Robbie Grossman LF | 2% | 19% | 17% |
| Francisco CervelliC | 2% | 7% | 5% |
| Austin Slater RF | 1% | 16% | 15% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
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