Waiver Wire Targets: Week 3
I don’t know how helpful today’s rankings will be. Many feel like moves that should have happened a week ago. Almost all of them will be off next week’s list (> 40% owned). Maybe with all the roster moves last week, a player or two wasn’t added.
As usual, I’m going to at least cover the players in demand using CBS’s (40% or less initial ownership) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered by my preference grouped by starters, relievers and hitters.
Hitters
- Jesus Aguilar (27%): Owners need to make sure they examine their waiver wire for dropped Marlins.
- Matt Kemp (15%): Kemp (.286/.394/.571) has started six of the last seven games at DH. With six home games coming up, he’s at least a must stream. Last week’s top bats (Moran, D. Smith, Crawford) went in the $110 to $200 range. Kemp might even go for more.
- Leury Garcia (31%): He raised his launch angle and is hitting the ball hard. A nice addition to the backend of a roster.
- David Fletcher (75%), J.P. Crawford (50%), Dominic Smith (19%), Renato Nunez (51%), JaCoby Jones (41%): These five and the above three hitters are not exciting in any way, but they are playing and hitting. With so many players on the regular or COVID IL, they are all must-owns by some team in each league.
- Jo Adell (66%): Power prospect in the majors. More than can be said for the next two.
- Wander Franco (36%) and Dylan Carlson (49%): I’m not 100% sure how to rank these two. They could be useful if they ever get called up.
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa (46%): Four stolen bases from a catcher.
- Nick Ahmed (19%): Any regular playing at Coors should be rostered, especially if the can be moved out once the series is over. Last week the Giants came to Colorado and average FAAB prices were from $30 (Belt) to $50 (Longoria). It’s always best to try to add the Colorado’s home opponent a week early and not pay as much.
- Monte Harrison (13%)
- Jonathan Schoop (28%)
- Austin Nola (16%)
- Colin Moran (60%): July OPS: 1.260. August OPS: .422
- Donovan Solano (59%): Part of the love for Solano came from a Colorado series. His ownership should drop.
- Dylan Moore (13%): He has started in seven of the last eight games while batting second in the last three. Also, he’s hitting .289/.308/.553 with two homers and three steals. Last week he was added in about a third of NFBC Main Events for an average of $17. That number is going up this week.
- Shed Long Jr. (19%): .562 OPS
- Hanser Alberto (56%)
- Carter Kieboom (40%): He sat against the last two righties.
- Nick Madrigal (44%): On IL with a separated shoulder.
- Wilmer Flores (15%)
- Max Stassi (24%): A catcher hitting .333/.393/.833 with four homers is a must-add. Most of the gains are from a higher Contact% (68% to 75%).
- Evan Longoria (30%)
- Ben Gamel (8%)
- Brian Goodwin (35%)
- Joey Bart (25%): I just don’t’ see the Giants calling him up.
Starters
- Randy Dobnak (53%): A two-start week at Milwaukee and versus Kansas City.
- Spencer Howard (48%): For reference, Christian Javier went for an average of $373 last week. If Howard is available, be prepared to open those wallets.
- Tyler Mahle (37%): A nice two-step against Kansas City and Pittsburgh
- Chris Bassitt (53%), Spencer Turnbull (28%), Cristian Javier (76%), Pablo Lopez (26%), Alec Mills (39%): While all five didn’t have much pre-season hype, they are all must-owns at his point.
- Framber Valdez (31%): A 2.04 ERA with matching ERA estimators. Improvement comes from a huge drop in his walk rate (5.6 BB/9 to 1.5 BB/9) by upping his Zone% from 49% to 60%.
- Touki Toussaint (18%): A new pitch mix (dropped his useless sinker for a four-seamer) has Toussaint on the rise. The changes are hidden by his 6.08 ERA but his estimators are around 3.00.
- David Peterson (22%): He’s been boring but usable (3.78 ERA, 7.6 K/9). Soroka owners could use him as a replacement since he’ll post similar stats.
- Yusei Kikuchi (36%): A 59% LOB% has his ERA over three runs higher than his estimators. In spite of unsightly ERA, both his GB% is up (44% to 57%) and SwStr% (9% to 12%) have improved. There should be little to no demand with a Houston start coming up.
- Brady Singer (49%): He’s been a little home run prone (2.4 HR/9), but a 10.8 K/9 and 3.22 xFIP should put him on everyone’s radar.
- Tyler Alexander (15%): Has been really good (15.3 K/9, 1.17 ERA) in short appearances (< 2 IP per appearance).
- Luis Patiño (24%)
- Drew Pomeranz (43%): Again, all the starters listed above Pomeranz I’d like over any elite middle reliever. It doesn’t have to be Pomeranz. Tyler Duffey is an example (18.0 K/9, 0.00 ERA, 0.20 WHIP) of someone to add.
- Taijuan Walker (26%)
- Kyle Freeland (70%): I don’t by the results.
- Antonio Senzatela (27%): Stay away from for at least another week since the Rockies will be at home.
Closers
- Daniel Hudson (67%): A good pitcher with the closer’s role.
- Rafael Montero (9%): A good pitcher with the closer’s role. He’s going to go for crazy high amounts. Last week in the NFBC Main Event, Jairo Diaz was added with an average bid of $330. Cole Sulser at $240. Rowan Wick for $201. In most deeper formats, the others are already rostered and Montero is the only Saves option available this week. If he is available, expect to pay up.
- Anthony Bass (45%): A respectable pitcher with the closer’s role.
- Trevor Gott (42%): A respectable pitcher with the closer’s role.
- Jairo Diaz (35%): A respectable pitcher with a high ERA closer’s role.
- Cole Sulser (21%): A respectable pitcher with the closer’s role.
- Rowan Wick (33%): A good pitcher who might have the closer’s role.
- Ryan Pressly (51%): A good injured pitcher who had the closer’s role.
- James Karinchak (40%): A good pitcher in the setup role.
- Joakim Soria (13%): A good pitcher in the setup role.
CBS Ownership Rates
| Name | Last Week’s Ownership | Current Ownership | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Solano 2B | 5% | 59% | 54% |
| Kyle Freeland SP | 19% | 70% | 51% |
| Randy Dobnak SP | 7% | 53% | 46% |
| Alec Mills RP | 15% | 54% | 39% |
| Cristian Javier SP | 37% | 76% | 39% |
| Daniel Hudson RP | 29% | 67% | 38% |
| David Fletcher 3B | 40% | 75% | 35% |
| Jairo Diaz RP | 2% | 35% | 33% |
| Colin Moran 3B | 28% | 60% | 32% |
| Tyler MahleSP | 6% | 37% | 31% |
| Hanser Alberto 2B | 27% | 56% | 29% |
| J.P. Crawford SS | 21% | 50% | 29% |
| Ryan Pressly RP | 22% | 51% | 29% |
| Rowan Wick RP | 5% | 33% | 28% |
| Spencer Turnbull SP | 23% | 51% | 28% |
| Jo Adell RF | 39% | 66% | 27% |
| Renato Nunez DH | 24% | 51% | 27% |
| Drew Pomeranz RP | 18% | 43% | 25% |
| Antonio Senzatela SP | 4% | 27% | 23% |
| Max Stassi C | 3% | 24% | 21% |
| JaCoby Jones CF | 21% | 41% | 20% |
| Chris Bassitt SP | 34% | 53% | 19% |
| Cole Sulser RP | 2% | 21% | 19% |
| Yusei Kikuchi SP | 17% | 36% | 19% |
| Leury Garcia CF | 14% | 31% | 17% |
| Trevor Gott RP | 25% | 42% | 17% |
| James Karinchak RP | 24% | 40% | 16% |
| Spencer Howard SP | 32% | 48% | 16% |
| Anthony Bass RP | 30% | 45% | 15% |
| David Peterson SP | 8% | 22% | 14% |
| Tyler Alexander SP | 1% | 15% | 14% |
| Dominic Smith 1B | 6% | 19% | 13% |
| Framber Valdez RP | 18% | 31% | 13% |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa C | 33% | 46% | 13% |
| Dylan Moore SS | 1% | 13% | 12% |
| Luis Patino SP | 12% | 24% | 12% |
| Matt Kemp LF | 3% | 15% | 12% |
| Pablo Lopez SP | 14% | 26% | 12% |
| Touki Toussaint RP | 6% | 18% | 12% |
| Brady Singer SP | 38% | 49% | 11% |
| Taijuan Walker SP | 15% | 26% | 11% |
| Austin Nola 1B | 6% | 16% | 10% |
| Brian Goodwin LF | 25% | 35% | 10% |
| Nick Madrigal 2B | 34% | 44% | 10% |
| Carter Kieboom SS | 31% | 40% | 9% |
| Dylan Carlson CF | 40% | 49% | 9% |
| Evan Longoria 3B | 21% | 30% | 9% |
| Wilmer Flores 2B | 6% | 15% | 9% |
| Jesus Aguilar 1B | 19% | 27% | 8% |
| Jonathan Schoop 2B | 21% | 28% | 7% |
| Monte Harrison CF | 6% | 13% | 7% |
| Shed Long 2B | 12% | 19% | 7% |
| Wander Franco SS | 29% | 36% | 7% |
| Ben Gamel LF | 2% | 8% | 6% |
| Joey Bart C | 19% | 25% | 6% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
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