A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing.

I have often wondered if, based on my line of work, I should dip my toes into the sports betting side of the business. After all, since I spend hours each week studying film — at least when GamePass is operational — perhaps I could try and find a way to profit off that knowledge.

So let us try and put that to the test.

Each week this season I’ll be trying my hand at wagering on the NFL, based on my film study, data analysis, and perhaps a Thomas Shelby flip of the coin or two. Since I believe in accountability, I’ll be tracking my success (or more likely failures) here each week as well. Perhaps we will all learn something along the way, such as “It is best to see what Mark does, and do the exact opposite.” I’ll focus on three big plays each week, but then highlight what I might do in each game on the schedule.

Odds will be provided by Gannett’s new partners at Tipico, and you can view their odds for the first week of the NFL season at that link. As always, please play responsibly.

Cowboys at Buccaneers (-7.5)

(James Lang-USA TODAY Sports)

The NFL season kicks off with a traditional Thursday night opener on September 9, with the Buccaneers welcoming the  Cowboys on a night they will raise a banner and toast the Super Bowl Champions once more.

Currently, the Buccaneers are favored by 7.5 in that game, and I’m going to place a bet on Tom Brady.

At first blush, that might seem like an aggressive play out of the gate, with Tampa Bay giving the 7.5 points. But I’m placing this bet for two reasons. First, there is an emotional aspect to the play. Starting with the 2010  season, the NFL campaign kicks off with the defending Super Bowl champions hosting a game on Thursday night.

(There have been two exceptions to this rule. In 2013 the Ravens opened on the road because of a scheduling conflict, as the Baltimore Orioles had a home game that night and the two teams share parking lots in downtown Baltimore. Then in 2019 the New England Patriots, winners of Super Bowl LIII, opened on the weekend as the NFL celebrated “NFL 100” with a game between the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers to kickoff the season).

But in the games featuring the defending Super Bowl champions, teams raising a banner are 7-4 in those games. Couple that with the fact that Tampa Bay will allow 100% capacity at Raymond James Stadium for the first time since the 2019 season, and you can expect the atmosphere to be electric.

There is another reason, however, I’m comfortable making this bet.

Tom Brady versus Dan Quinn.

Brady has enjoyed some success against the new Cowboys defensive coordinator in the past. Back in Super Bowl XLIX when Quinn was the defensive coordinator in Seattle, Brady warmed up in the second half and finished the night by completing 37 of 50 passes for 328 yards and four touchdowns, leading a comeback in the fourth quarter.

Then of course there is Super Bowl LI, when Quinn was the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons. Brady again started slowly, but warmed up in the second half to spur the comeback, completing 43 of 62 passes for 466 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

Brady did not face Quinn’s Atlanta Falcons last season, as the head coach was fired before the Buccaneers and the Falcons squared off. But he did face that defensive structure, as defensive coordinator Raheem Morris was named the interim head coach. In two late-season games against Atlanta, Brady completed 57 of 86 passes for 789 yards and 6 touchdowns, with just one interception.

Tampa Bay won both games, and Brady looked like this:

I’m rolling with Brady to kick things off.

Bet: Buccaneers (-7.5)

Chargers (-1.5) at Washington

(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)

Now we’re going to be really bold.

The Los Angeles Chargers are one of a few road favorites in Week 1, giving 1.5 points to the home Washington Football Team.

You might think that betting on a road favorite is a risky proposition, especially when it is a west coast team coming east to play in the early time slot. Historically, teams coming east for the 1 p.m. Eastern kickoff tend to struggle.

Then there is what Washington will put on the field when the Chargers have the football. The Football Team has one of the more imposing defensive fronts in all of football, featuring four former first-round selections on the defensive line and having added another first-round pick to their defensive front seven in linebacker Jamin Davis. Couple that with what they have assembled in the secondary, and you have the recipe for success on the defensive side of the ball: Pass rush plus coverage.

However, Justin Herbert has entered the chat.

Among the many impressive aspects to Herbert’s rookie season was how well he fared in the face of pressure. The rookie passer was one of the best quarterbacks under duress last season, and that was on display both on film and in the data. Take this graph, using data from Pro Football Focus and my meager coding skills:

(I am somewhat embarrassed over how long this took me to plot, but I’m learning…)

This graph depicts both Adjusted Completion Percentage when Pressured and Yards Per Attempt when Pressured, among qualified passers last season. The red lines indicate the league averages for both categories. If you are in the upper right quadrant, you are doing well in both.

Herbert truly stands out here.

This backs up what we saw on film. You might also remember the game that put Herbert on the map, a Week 4 outing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

In that game, Herbert posted an EPA/Play of 0.454, his fourth-best mark of the season.

He was also pressured on a staggering 58.60% of his snaps, the most in a single game last season.

Washington might be built to pressure QBs, but Herbert is one of the few quarterbacks in the league built to handle such pressure. I’m rolling with him in Week 1.

Bet: Chargers (-1.5)

Jaguars (-2.5) at Texans

(Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)

I do not think we need to overthink this one.

The visiting Jaguars are listed as favorites in Week 1, giving 2.5 points to the home Houston Texans.

After all, the Texans look like a mess from the outside. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is working more as a scout team safety than a quarterback, leaving us with the impression that it will be the Tyrod Taylor show in Week 1. New general manager Nick Caserio brought in a ton of new faces, most of whom look like depth additions rather than top-flight starters. As discussed recently on the Touchdown Wire Podcast, how many players are among the best at their position on the Houston roster? A handful, perhaps.

Yes, Jacksonville is a year or so away from being truly competitive in the AFC South, but I love the direction they are headed, and I think they’ll be just fine in Week 1.

Bet: Jaguars (-2.5)

New York Jets at Carolina Panthers (-4.5)

(Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

Now we’re going to look at the rest of the slate, and the plays that I would make if forced to do so with each game. Our friends at Tipico currently list the home Panthers as favorites by 4.5 over the visiting  Jets, and had I been playing this game, my money would go towards the home team. You might think that is a reflection of my current confidence — or lack thereof — in rookie Zach Wilson, but that would be mistaken.

Instead, it is more a bet on Joe Brady. I am very intrigued by the Panthers offense this season, including new quarterback Sam Darnold. Terrace Marshall Jr. was not my favorite receiver in the draft but the fit in Carolina is perfect, and a healthy Christian McCaffery will certainly help this offense.

As for Wilson, I am imploring people not to read too much into practice reports. Preseason is about process, not results.

49ers (-7.5) at Lions

The 49ers are listed as one of the biggest favorites during Week 1, as Tipico puts them as 7.5-points favorites on the road against the Lions. And sure, there are tons of reasons to list the 49ers that way.

However, 7.5 is a big number for a team to lay down on the road, and while I do not think the Lions win this game outright, I think they at least cover the spread. Maybe it is the old football player in me, but I’m somewhat buying in on what Dan Campbell is building in the Motor City.

Cardinals at Titans (-2.5)

(AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)

This game might be one of the more fascinating plays of Week 1. The Cardinals are road underdogs in Week 1, getting 3.5 points on the road against the Titans.

I’ve been pretty vocal about why I am buying the Titans this season. I am a fan of Ryan Tannehill — he remains must-watch for me each Monday — and I love the fit with Julio Jones in Tennessee:

Give me the Titans in this one.

Eagles (+3.5) at Falcons

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

For those who might not be aware, I co-host a Philadelphia Eagles podcast on Bleeding Green Radio titled “The QB Factory.” Each week the show dives into quarterbacks through an Eagles’ lens.

Perhaps this play is due in part to my brilliant co-host, Raichele Privette. Each week we open the show with movie quotes, song lyrics, historical references, or other little hooks that we eventually tie to the topics discussed. At the start of our second show, Raichele referenced lyrics from Philadelphia’s own Meek Mill, about being a heavy underdog.

Like the Eagles this season, a team many people view as having one of the worst rosters in the league.

But I like where Raichele’s head is at, and I’d roll with the Eagles in this one.

Steelers at Bills (-6.5)

We change things up with this look at the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to upstate New York to take on the Buffalo Bills. The Steelers are heavy underdogs in this one, with the Bills landing as 6.5 point favorites.

What intrigues me most about this game is the under, listed at Tipico at 47.5. That number has actually moved down in recent weeks, as it opened at 50.5. Still, we’re making these plays with the spread in mind each week. While 6.5 is a big number, many are looking at the Bills as Super Bowl contenders, and with good reason. I’ll roll with the home team Buffalo Bills in this one.

Vikings (-3.5) at Bengals

(Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports)

It might not be a surprise why I am staying away from this game. Reports out of both teams are somewhat unsettling at this time. In Cincinnati, the offense seems to be struggling and second-year passer Joe Burrow is perhaps less than confident in his return from a knee injury. Now, if you look back at quarterbacks returning from ACL surgery, you will see that it takes some time for them to settle in and have that confidence in their lower body. Just look at how Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz and Jimmy Garoppolo took some time to return to form after their knee injuries.

So I think that Burrow gets there, but Week 1 has me worried.

Then there are the Vikings, who are in the news for different reasons.

If I had to put money on this game I’d put it on Minnesota, who enter as 3.5 point road favorites. But I would not feel completely comfortable about it.

Dolphins at Patriots (-2.5)

(Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports)

I can just see you now, dear reader. “Oh great, yet another opportunity for this unapologetic New England Patriots homer to opine about his favorite team.”

And you’d be absolutely right.

Originally, I thought I would roll with Miami in this game. But studying the Dolphins I have reservations about the tackle spots in front of Tua Tagovailoa. Austin Jackson is on the COVID-19 list and is a question mark for this game, but he has not had the best of training camps anyway. I think New England finds a way to pressure the quarterback and comes away with the win.

Broncos at Giants (+2.5)

(AP Photo/Corey Sipkin)

I have no idea what to make of this game.

It seems I am not alone.

This contest has one of the narrowest point spreads of the week, with the visiting Broncos as favorites by 2.5.

The reason I’m unsure about this game? The quarterback situation in Denver. The Broncos have put together one of the better rosters in the league, but will Teddy Bridgewater live up to the expectations?

At least with the New York Giants, you have an idea of what that roster, and offense, will look like Week 1. I’m not ready to anoint Daniel Jones as the “QB who makes the Josh Allen-style leap” this season yet, but he is a contender.

Given that, if forced to make a pick here I’ll take the Giants.

Cleveland Browns (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

(Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)

Let’s get absolutely nutty.

I really like what both teams have done this off-season. Each organization looked at where they wanted to be as a team, and took huge steps to bring those dreams to life. Everyone who watched Super Bowl LV knew the Kansas City Chiefs needed to shore up their offensive line, and did they ever, with the number of additions via free agency, trade and the draft. But there is also a schematic element to their additions, as it seems the Chiefs are going to incorporate some new run designs to their offense, giving opposing defensive coordinators even more to worry about.

Then there are the Browns, who it would appear were already worried about stopping offenses like Kansas City’s. So they added on defense.

A lot.

Greg Newsome II and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at the top of the draft. John Johnson III and Troy Hill in free agency. They return Grant Delpit to the fold after missing all of last season due to injury. Oh and they added Jadeveon Clowney as well.

Sure they are heavy underdogs on the road, with the Chiefs giving 6.5 in this game. But I’m taking the Browns to cover.

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at New Orleans Saints

(Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports)

After a summer of “will he or won’t he,” Aaron Rodgers is back in the fold with the Green Bay Packers, slinging dimes at practice and dropping deep shots into literal buckets.

On the other side of the field, Michael Thomas is unhappy and injured, Sean Payton has picked Jameis Winston, and while the Saints defense might be a solid unit like last year, it is hard to buy into the Saints, at least as far as Week 1 goes.

Give me the Packers, road favorites giving 2.5 points to the Saints.

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)

(Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports)

Perhaps out of all the Week 1 games, this is the contest I am anticipating the most.

Why? Because after a draft cycle defending Justin Fields’ honor, we might see him finally take the field in a regular-season NFL game. All reports out of Chicago Bears training camp indicate that Fields is well ahead of expectations, and perhaps the Bears break camp with him named the starting quarterback.

Still…

One reason why it might be the Andy Dalton show to start the season is this: The Bears are going up against one of the league’s most talented defenses in Week 1. Yes, there is a bit of a brain and talent drain with the Rams. John Johnson III and Troy Hill have departed, and Brandon Staley moved across town to coach the Chargers, but last I checked Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald are still on the roster.

That is a defense that remains terrifying.

Oh and the Rams added Matthew Stafford, giving Sean McVay the kind of decisive quarterback his offense needs.

I love the future in Chicago, but I’ll take the Rams in this one, even giving 7.5 points.

Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders (+4.5)

(Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports)

Another game where I do not feel comfortable making a play.

On paper, the Baltimore Ravens are favored by 4.5 for a reason. They return Lamar Jackson, their defense looks to be solid again, they added some pieces in the off-season, and are you really buying Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders right now?

But yet…

Jackson is coming back from his second bout with COVID. Rashod Bateman is expected to miss time with a groin injury and could miss the start of the season. Plus, the Raiders will finally have fans in their new stadium on a Monday night.

If I were forced to make a play, I’ll take the Raiders and the points.