Nothing bursts the bubble of a fantasy baseball player like a rash of early season injuries.
You can have a phenomenal draft and, in a blink of an eye, it can fall to pieces. Just ask those who drafted Fernando Tatis Jr., Eloy Jimenez, James Paxton and Trevor Rosenthal. Three of those four are lost for the season and, though Tatis is expected to return at some point, when and at what capacity are still unknown.
If you have any hope of winning your league, with or without injuries, it all comes down to your work on the waiver wire. Not every free agent you acquire is going to pan out, but you can give yourself a better chance if you wisely look ahead rather than chase past performances.
Currently sitting atop your free agent list is Reds outfielder Tyler Naquin. Over the first six games, Naquin had a slash line of .316/.435/.947 with four home runs and 13 RBIs. Those numbers are downright eye-popping. But if Naquin is so good, why wasn’t he drafted? How did you and all of your league-mates overlook such a strong commodity?
The answer is, you didn’t. The outfielder, who will turn 30 on April 24, spent five years failing to break into the Cleveland starting lineup and has spent his career as nothing more than a platoon-player and left-handed bat off the bench. He was expected to fill the same role in Cincinnati this season, but an illness to starting outfielder Jesse Winker has afforded him the extra playing time, and Naquin has performed admirably.
Most fantasy owners will look at the numbers for Naquin and attempt to pick him up. Who wouldn’t want those four homers or 13 RBIs? But unfortunately, you’re not picking up those numbers. Those numbers are no longer available to you or your fantasy team. The numbers you’re getting are what he does next week in pitcher-friendly San Francisco and beyond, and if you’ve looked at his career averages, you’ll see you will be lucky to get another four home runs or 13 RBIs the entire rest of the season.
Chasing yesterday’s numbers won’t bring you a championship. Players like Naquin or Michael Taylor may be off to a hot start, but the ship for those totals has sailed. Neither will accrue full-time at-bats, and neither is likely to vault you up the standings. Seek out players who are expected to retain full-time roles — like Orioles outfielder Cedric Mullins or Mariners infielder Ty France. Those are the waiver claims to make because you aren’t chasing yesterday’s numbers, you’re acquiring tomorrow’s breakout.
Howard Bender is the VP of operations and head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to FantasyAlarm.com for all your fantasy baseball advice.
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April 11, 2021 at 08:22AM
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Fantasy owners must factor in playing time when looking at waiver wire - New York Post
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