Welcome to the Week 1 edition of Waiver Wired for the 2020 season. This is admittedly an odd primer since the shortened offseason and, as you may have heard, virus pushed all of the league’s activities and most fantasy drafts closer to kick-off than ever before. While that leaves roster percentages slightly skewed, I’ll diligently sift through every option to ensure fantasy players are covered across the board for every format ranging from 16-round re-drafts to 20-round startups ahead of opening weekend.
As a refresher, The Drop List consists of players who are rostered in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues and are no longer must-have assets, recommended additions are available in over 50 percent of Yahoo leagues, the Watch List contains in-depth notes on fringe waiver adds, and Deep Cuts includes player notes on those rostered in five percent or fewer of Yahoo leagues.
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The Drop List
The drop list will return with suggested releases at every position following Week 1. If your league runs waivers prior to kick-off on Thursday, now is the time to shed those unsuccessful Hail Marys for the best available starting kicker and D/ST options to open the year (assuming those fliers were occupying those spots to begin with). It should go without saying, but prioritize cutting all players who will miss the season, then drop your secondary quarterback (outside of 2-QB leagues), tight ends, defenses, and kickers in standard leagues. Those rosters slots are much better occupied by an upside running back or receiver, especially early on.
Overall Top 5
1. DeSean Jackson
2. Chase Edmonds
3. Darrel Williams
4. Curtis Samuel
5. Boston Scott
For those looking to roster the best available player(s) regardless of position, the rankings above take into account every factor from the positional lists minus players’ actual positions. These are listed in the precise order I would prioritize waiver claims in Week 1. Adjust accordingly for what you need on your roster — touches, high-upside bench stashes, targets, one-week spot-starters, etc.
Quarterbacks
1. Teddy Bridgewater
2. Gardner Minshew
3. Mitchell Trubisky
Running Backs
1. Chase Edmonds
2. Darrel Williams
3. Boston Scott
4. Joshua Kelley
5. Jerick McKinnon
6. Chris Thompson
7. Bryce Love
8. Benny Snell
9. Devine Ozigbo
10. James Robinson
Wide Receivers
1. DeSean Jackson
2. Curtis Samuel
3. Parris Campbell
4. Laviska Shenault
5. Sammy Watkins
6. Preston Williams
7. Steven Sims
8. N’Keal Harry
9. Bryan Edwards
Tight Ends
1. Eric Ebron
2. Jack Doyle
3. Logan Thomas
Defense/Special Teams
Denver Broncos rostered in 59 percent of Yahoo leagues. No. 1 add if available.
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Washington
Kickers
1. Younghoe Koo
2. Ka’imi Fairbairn
QUARTERBACKS
1. Teddy Bridgewater, Panthers — Rostered in 23 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 5% FAAB Bid)
Bridgewater may not be viable as a fantasy starter long-term, but his matchup against Las Vegas’ crippled secondary (flying cross country, nonetheless) pits Joe Brady’s high-octane offense in a bout guaranteed minimal stops and maximum fireworks. Carolina’s undermanned and inexperienced corners room — Donte Jackson, fourth-round rookie Troy Pride, Eagles castoff Rasul Douglas, Corn Elder (63 career snaps) — is gas to Bridgewater’s intent (and need to) fire through the air. Reminder that Brady mentioned maximizing five-man protections (rather than overloading the line of scrimmage) to get the ball out quicker against competent pass rushes — an approach the Panthers will likely lean on if LG Dennis Daley (ankle) can’t go.
2. Gardner Minshew, Jaguars — Rostered in 27 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-5%)
It’s admittedly a nightmarish matchup against Indianapolis’ new look front-seven, but Minshew presumably offers bonus rushing juice after he averaged 5.1 carries per game before being benched for Nick Foles last year. The concern here is Jacksonville’s play volume on a ticking clock after the Colts and Frank Reich intently ran it down the Jaguars’ throats for 36 and 27 carries in two divisional contests last season.
3. Mitchell Trubisky, Bears — Rostered in 3 percent of Yahoo Leagues (2-5%)
It’s a tough pill to swallow, but Trubisky did average 21.8 fantasy points in six contests against bottom-half DVOA defenses last year, plugging the Lions in particular for 19.7 and 27.9. The 5.5 scrambles he averaged over his last six starts also gives him ‘outs’ since, unlike “bad carries” for decrepit running backs, there is no such thing as a bad number of rushes from under center (see Josh Allen). Get this right and you’ll be rewarded Trubisky against the Giants’ sieve of a defense in Week 2.
Watch List: Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor, Philip Rivers, Dwayne Haskins
RUNNING BACKS
1. Chase Edmonds, Cardinals — Rostered in 45 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 50% FAAB Bid)
For what it’s worth, Kenyan Drake only donned his “precautionary” boot in camp for 48 hours. (His absence was reportedly extended for an illness that has since subsided.) Cardinals backups merely averaged 2.3 carries and a single target in eight games behind Drake last year, but it’s more important to stash Edmonds’ upside as an elite handcuff over a player guaranteed a handful of touches in a worse offense. You wouldn’t opt for $1 now if guaranteed $20 in three weeks. Why force your bench to settle? Any surplus of touches for Edmonds out the gates would be icing on the cake.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team leagues
2. Darrel Williams, Chiefs – Rostered in 24 percent of Yahoo leagues (25%)
Prioritize ‘The Mentor’ over Edmonds If your roster needs touches immediately. Not only should we expect to see “Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Williams split most of the Chiefs’ rushing attempts” on Thursday, there is a chance Williams sticks around as an 8-12 touch commodity in this offense throughout the year. He’s already proven he can deliver in that lesser role, scoring 15.9, 19.6, and 12.3 fantasy points on 14, 11, and 13 touches in place of Damien Williams last year. If debating how to weigh Darrel strictly for Week 1, note that the Texans permitted the second-most catches (104) to running backs (via Evan Silva's Matchups Column).
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
3. Boston Scott, Eagles – Rostered in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues (20%)
Miles Sanders’ hamstring injury is a thing of the past after the team dwindled its backfield depth to Corey Clement and Scott before adding fifth-rounder Jason Huntley (5’9/194) off waivers. But that role for Scott entails the same opportunity that allotted him six targets and nine touches in all three of his games overlapping with Sanders (Weeks 14-16) to close the year. Scott’s standalone value is questionable, but his weekly target floor at the very least pins him atop those listed below.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
4. Joshua Kelley, Chargers – Rostered in 10 percent of Yahoo leagues (20%)
It’s true that Kelley opened camp with the third-string offense behind Justin Jackson, but the fourth-round rookie reportedly shined while the latter was sidelined over the final week with a hamstring injury. Coach Anthony Lynn said Jackson should be “fine” for Week 1, but jumping at the opportunity to roster Kelley wherever possible now has the potential to save hundreds of FAAB down the road. Worst-case scenario is Kelley splits reps with Jackson behind Austin Ekeler. The more probable one is that Kelley earned that role behind Ekeler all to himself.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
5. Jerick McKinnon, 49ers – Rostered in 10 percent of Yahoo leagues (15%)
McKinnon will likely out-produce both Scott and Kelley in the short-term but will have his weekly touches capped by Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman throughout the year. Still, targets are worth three times more fantasy points than carries, and McKinnon need only siphon Coleman’s role to offer FLEX value against what Warren Sharp projects as the second-softest passing schedule through the first six games.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
6. Chris Thompson, Jaguars – Rostered in 40 percent of Yahoo leagues (10-12%)
James Robinson or Devine Ozigbo (see below) will lead the team in carries, but those touches will be inferior to Thompson's role as Jackonville's satellite back while healthy. The 29-year-old reunites with OC Jay Gruden, who previously leaned on Thompson for 39/510/4 receiving and an overall RB28 finish with the Washington Football Team in 2017.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
7. Benny Snell, Steelers – Rostered in 12 percent of Yahoo leagues (10-12%)
Coach Mike Tomlin has emphasized throughout the offseason that James Conner is a three-down back and Snell is the heir apparent. His most recent comments reiterated that:
Although that doesn’t leave any amount of touches for Snell while Conner is healthy, the second-year pro should be rostered as a 20-touch handcuff in the event Conner exits early in any contest. For those who have yet to draft, note that I recently nudged Conner up to RB13 in our Draft Kit rankings.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 14-team leagues
8. Bryce Love, Washington – Rostered in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues (10-12%)
Love has the pedigree — 263/2,118/19 and 8.1 YPA with Stanford in 2017 — and Day 2 draft capital working in his favor but will likely be inactive for Peyton Barber until he’s up to speed following a second surgery he underwent last October to repair his torn ACL. He won’t return any value immediately.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 14-team leagues
9. Devine Ozigbo, Jaguars – Rostered in 12 percent of Yahoo leagues (5%)
10. James Robinson, Jaguars – Rostered in 1 percent of Yahoo leagues (5%)
James Robinson is listed atop Jacksonville’s unofficial depth chart but I’m not buying it, nor do I think either Ozigbo or Robinson offer relief in Week 1 and upside on benches. Leonard Fournette was an awful third (and fourth and fifth) round selection over the summer because the Jaguars’ offense figures to be game scripted away from running the ball early. Vegas ultimately projects this team as underdogs by more than a field goal in 14-of-16 games this year, which makes our initial prognostication the same. The outlook doesn’t change just because the names handling the ball did.
Recommendation: Either can be rostered in 14-team leagues
Watch List: Coach Sean McVay reportedly wants to use a "three-headed backfield" against Dallas, but that entails Darrell Henderson (hamstring, questionable) being available. If Henderson is ruled out, odds are Malcolm Brown mixes in behind Cam Akers in a similar role that allowed the former to rush for 11/53/2 on 28% of Los Angeles' snaps behind Todd Gurley in the season opener last year...Tony Pollard remains a premier handcuff, but I have my doubts about his standalone value since coach Mike McCarthy has allowed Kellen Moore to conduct the same offensive game plan he leaned on Ezekiel Elliott for last year...Damien Harris (hand, IR) will only be absent for three games. New England’s beat suggests Sony Michel “figures to ease into the mix” in Week 1, leaving ample opportunity for Harris to return as a starter when healthy. I would hold the latter if afforded a 10-man bench...There's no reason to believe Chris Carson (hip) won't be 100% on Sunday, but if that is the case, Carlos Hyde's workload includes 20-plus touches in an uptempo affair against Atlanta..., Again, Justin Jackson will reportedly be “fine” for Sunday. Whether he returns to the same role he walked into at the start of camp is another question entirely.
Deep Cuts: Darrynton Evans, Brian Hill (6'1/219), Lynn Bowden, Mike Davis, DeeJay Dallas, Rex Burkhead, Darwin Thompson
WIDE RECEIVERS
1. DeSean Jackson, Eagles – Rostered in 50 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 75% FAAB Bid)
Jackson’s roster percentage has teetered into majority territory over the last 24 hours, so I’ll keep this brief and abundantly clear: he’s a better option than the WR3 you’re currently planning to roll out on Sunday. Even if Jalen Reagor (shoulder) returns in Week 2, his presumed slower acclimation as a rookie with limited reps would glue Jackson to the field out of necessity against Washington, in Philadelphia’s home opener against the uptempo Rams, and versus the Bengals to start the year. Ignore any pandering about his injury history; Jackson appeared in 12, 14, and 15 games in the three years prior to tearing his abdomen (and re-aggravating it) last season.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 10-team leagues
2. Curtis Samuel, Panthers – Rostered in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues (15-20%)
Slotting Samuel this high on the priority list is admittedly a leap of faith after he reportedly failed to impress in camp and was listed behind Robby Anderson on the team’s unofficial depth chart. But Samuel's 5.9 yards per target from last year seamlessly mesh with Bridgewater's horizontal preference, and no other wideout on Carolina’s roster has the skillset to run themselves open underneath, contest downfield, and handle manufactured touches from the backfield. Unloading on Samuel over those listed below is purely a forward-thinking bet on Matt Rhule and Joe Brady.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
3. Parris Campbell, Colts – Rostered in 21 percent of Yahoo leagues (12-15%)
Campbell's 4.31 40-time and 94th-percentile SPARQ athleticism have been forgotten by many after he struggled through a nagging hamstring, sports hernia, broken hand, and broken foot in his rookie year. But the Colts were creative in getting him the ball, allowing him three carries in the only three starts he made all season. His shallow 8.2 average depth of target from the slot just happens to mesh with Rivers' shaky arm strength.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
4. Laviska Shenault, Jaguars – Rostered in 11 percent of Yahoo leagues (8-10%)
Unlike the team’s three-headed backfield, Shenault’s outlook has enhanced with every passing day of camp since Dede Westbrook missed a majority of practices with a shoulder injury (and has arguably fallen out of favor entirely). Shenault’s explosiveness underneath — per Pro Football Focus, only 25% of his targets at Colorado traveled beyond 10 yards of the line of scrimmage — paints him with a high floor as early as Week 1. Fingers crossed his wildcat and red zone carries from camp transition into Jacksonville’s regular season game plan.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
5. Sammy Watkins, Chiefs – Rostered in 42 percent of Yahoo leagues (5-8%)
In what we should expect to be a competitive high-scoring affair on Thursday night, Watkins projects as the better play over Samuel, Campbell, or Shenault. But I prefer to weigh versatility heavier long-term, and that’s something Watkins failed to offer in averaging 7.0 fantasy points in the 13 games following his 37.8 week-winning performance to start the year. His reemergence in the playoffs (14/288/1, 16% target share) lends short-term confidence.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
6. Preston Williams, Dolphins – Rostered in 40 percent of Yahoo leagues (5-8%)
Williams had actually out-targeted DeVante Parker 60 to 56 prior to suffering a torn ACL in November. Reportedly participating with “no restrictions” ahead of Week 1, Williams is simply being undervalued whereas Parker, who returned to practice with an undisclosed and “minor” injury on Tuesday, is being overrated. Neither are terrific options against Stephon Gilmore and Co. in Week 1.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
7. Steven Sims, Washington — Rostered in 6 percent of Yahoo leagues (1%)
Sims recorded 7, 11, 10, and 8 targets over Washington's last four games with Terry McLaurin and Dwayne Haskins in and out of the lineup. You’re chasing his high floor from the slot with the hopes he emerges as Haskins’ No. 2 option (which is currently open for the taking) behind McLaurin.
8. N’Keal Harry, Patriots – Rostered in 38 percent of Yahoo leagues (1%)
Harry averaged an underwhelming 4.1 yards per target in a disappointing rookie year from Tom Brady, but Mo Sanu’s departure opens the door for Harry to be involved, for better or worse, on every down. The 22-year-old tied James White for the team lead in targets inside the 10-yard line (4) from Week 10.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 12-team leagues
9. Bryan Edwards – Rostered in 17 percent of Yahoo leagues (1%)
Edwards (6’3/212) was the top waiver add at his position in high-stakes FFPC leagues Friday night but that format (12-team, 20-round leagues) offers slim pickings the moment the draft ends. There’s no need to prioritize Edwards on your run-of-the-mill six-man benches since his profile, while salivating as a Deebo Samuel comp, doesn’t make much sense in the Raiders’ offense. Perhaps coach Jon Gruden figures out how to use Edwards, the 11th-youngest receiver among this year’s class, accordingly, but it’s not something I want to bet on in shallower leagues following a shortened offseason.
Recommendation: Should be rostered in 14-team leagues
Watch List: Golden Tate, Brandon Aiyuk, Preston Williams, Jalen Reagor, James Washington, Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard
Deep Leagues: Josh Reynolds, Van Jefferson, Kendrick Bourne, Lynn Bowden (RB/WR), Danny Amendola, Andy Isabella, Bisi Johnson.
TIGHT ENDS
1. Eric Ebron, Steelers — Rostered in 32 percent of Yahoo leagues (Suggested 15% FAAB Bid)
Not only did the Steelers lead the league in pass attempts with Roethlisberger healthy for all of 2018, the team’s tight ends unit finished second in total routes run (788). With second-round specimen Chase Claypool (6’4/238) reportedly playing out wide to begin his career, Ebron should compete to finish among the league leaders in red zone targets and routes run at his position. The 27-year-old is only one injury-riddled year removed from scoring 13 touchdowns and averaging the fourth-most fantasy points per game (13.9) among tight ends.
2. Jack Doyle, Colts — Rostered in 30 percent of Yahoo leagues (10-15%)
Doyle’s target share (20.6%) and red zone target percentage (30.6%) increased in the five games Ebron missed last year. It’s not comparing apples to apples since Philip Rivers offers far better accuracy under center, but Doyle’s raw target share should remain high since, much like the dropoff from Ebron to Mo Alie-Cox last year, downgrading from Trey Burton (calf, IR) to Alie-Cox remains a steep one. For what it’s worth, Hunter Henry finished eighth among tight ends in targets per game (6.3) in ‘19.
3. Logan Thomas, Washington — Rostered in 1 percent of Yahoo leagues (2-4%)
Rarely do the one percent make the priority section, but Thomas’ salivating burst (4.61 40-time) and 89th-percentile arm length were listed atop Washington’s depth chart (following a stellar camp) on Monday. The lack of any cemented target tree behind McLaurin gives Thomas (6’6/248) a fair shot to emerge as Washington’s No. 2 receiver as early as the season opener against Philly. The 29-year-old’s competition for opportunity includes Steven Sims, who failed to separate himself from incumbent slot WR Trey Quinn until Week 14, and small school fourth-rounder Antonio Gandy-Golden.
Watch List: O.J. Howard, Ian Thomas, Tyler Eifert, Irv Smith
Deep Leagues: Darren Fells, Dan Arnold, Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger, Harrison Bryant
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
1. Dallas Cowboys – Rostered in 37 percent of Yahoo leagues
I question Dallas’ secondary talent, but its defense is guaranteed voluminous opportunities for sacks and interceptions since the Rams, slated as 2.5-point home dogs at this time, passed the ball at the league’s highest rate when trailing last year. As Establish The Run’s pace guru Pat Thorman notes, Rams and Cowboys games also averaged the fourth- and fifth-most combined snaps in 2019. This is a hold-your-nose streaming option for those who rostered players rather than securing a starting defense in the final round of drafts.
2. Washington – Rostered in 4 percent of Yahoo leagues
Washington’s front-seven quietly offers exposure to five former first-round pass rushers — Ryan Kerrigan, Jonathan Allen, Da’Ron Payne, Montez Sweat, Chase Young — against a Philadelphia offense makeshifting its line to compensate for the losses of LT Andre Dillard (torn biceps) and RG Brandon Brooks (torn Achilles’). If expecting this one to shootout (and we are), Washington at the very least has a chance to tally multiple sacks.
Watch List: Buccaneers
KICKERS
1. Younghoe Koo, Falcons – Rostered in 48 percent of Yahoo leagues
High-volume passing offenses have historically led to opportunity for kickers, and there is no team slated to pass the ball more in 2020 than the Falcons after OC Dirk Koetter did so at the league’s highest rate when trailing (77%) last year, additionally keeping his offense’s foot on the gas at the fourth-highest rate (55%) while protecting an in-game lead. The Falcons are currently
2. Ka’imi Fairburn, Texans – Rostered in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues
The Texans are only implied to have the 18th-highest team total (22.5) in Week 1, but there is meat on the bone since the Chiefs are implied to score 3.5 more points (32) than any other squad. Any game script that goes awry would lead to Fairburn getting a handful of opportunities to either pad Houston’s lead or keep pace with Kansas City.
Watch List: Ryan Succop is only underrostered (15%) since he was in competition with Matt Gay until Saturday. Week 1 doesn’t paint a pretty picture for his outlook, but the Bucs’ offense (including Succop) should roll against the fourth-softest schedule based on Vegas’ Season Win Totals from Week 2 on.
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Waiver Wire: Week 1 - Yahoo Sports
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