Waiver Wire Targets: Week 12
For this week, fantasy managers should find hitting replacements for injured or demoted players and then focus their attention on the starting pitching replacements. Several pitchers are improving while a couple more have new roles. Rarely do this many starters pop-up mid-season so roster some now. Finally, it’s not a week to speculate on Saves. No bullpens are in flux, so any Sunday blowups will be the focus.
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Batters
• Amed Rosario: He’s a must-add in any roto league. The combination of speed (7 SB), power (4 HR), and average (.282 AVG) is about impossible to find on the wire. Part of his improvement is from a career-best walk and strikeout rate.
• Odúbel Herrera: A balanced profile (5 HR, 4 SB, .275 AVG) that isn’t going to win leagues but isn’t going to lose them either.
• Brandon Belt: Since coming off the IL, he’s hitting .325/.426/.650 with 2 HR and starting every day at first base.
• Jake Fraley: In 83 PA, he’s hitting .250/.458/.483 with 4 HR and 4 SB. The only issue is that he’s not played the last few games for an undisclosed reason. Feel free to add, but don’t start until his playing time returns.
• Joc Pederson: Pederson has been on power breakout with his monthly home run total going from one to three to seven so far this month. He was a disappointment until this last hot streak which puts him on par with his past seasons. Part of the breakout might be that he’s only had to sit against four lefty starters this month.
• Miguel Andújar: He was on fire there for a while but just has a .360 OPS over the last week. In the 21 games before that, he was hitting .320/.333/.533 with five homers. With the heater not sustainable, he’s back to being a fourth fantasy outfielder.
• Bobby Bradley: I had some hope Bradley had turned the corner and wasn’t striking out as much, but that’s not the case. While he’s at 25% K% on the season, it was up to 36% this past week.
• Jesús Sánchez: He was recalled a little earlier than I thought. After hitting .349/.400/.643 in AAA, he’s struggled since being called up with 6 K and 2 H in 13 PA. I’d roster him on teams where I have an open bench spot. I just don’t trust him in my lineup.
• J.P. Crawford: He’s hitting .382/.436/.588 with two homers in June so he’s now on people’s radars. I looked for any change in his profile (e.g. plate discipline or batted ball data). He has been hitting the ball harder (monthly Hard%: 14% to 21% to 38%) and a .453 BABIP (career .300 BABIP).
• Luis Urías: His fantasy value just took a huge hit with Kolten Wong coming off the IL and pushing Urias back to the seventh lineup spot. Also, he will be done with the current four-game stretch in Colorado. He’s fine (.231 AVG, 8 HR, 3 SB).
• Adam Duvall: He continues to do what he’s always done, hit a ton of homers (14), steal a few bases (4), and hit for a poor average (.215). Some fantasy teams will find is profile useful, others won’t.
• Brendan Rodgers: His value and usage are similar to many Rockies hitters. At home this season he’s hitting .324/.366/.486 (career: .278/.333/.367) but .200/.333/.371 (career: .178/.245/.267) on the road. One positive sign of improvement (i.e. getting healthy) is a career-best walk (7%) and strikeout (22%) rates.
• Chas McCormick: While he’s not hitting for average (.214 AVG), he’s making up for it with power (8 HR, .286 ISO). The Astros like what they see and have him batting second with Bregman and Tucker on the IL.
• Daniel Vogelbach: The stars have aligned for Vogelbach with no more platoon (Hiura demoted) and the Brewers playing seven games with four in Colorado. Next week looks decent with six games against Arizona and Colorado. Roster for another week and then re-evaluate.
• Abraham Toro: He’s a nice add while Alex Bregman is on the IL. He was hitting .352/.485/.593 with 2 HR and 2 SB in AAA. A nice one-week replacement and then can be re-evaluated next weekend.
• Myles Straw: He (.632 OPS, 8 SB, 4 CS, 1 HR) got a second lease on playing time when Kyle Tucker went on the IL. Chas McCormick (.783 OPS) was hitting ahead of Straw and when Alex Bregman went on the IL McCormick moved up to second. There is a pecking order in Houston and Straw is at the bottom of it. Roster a week or two more for the stolen base chance.
• Billy McKinney: He’s started five straight in right field while hitting .259/.338/.603 with four home runs since joining the Mets. His playing time may dry up with both Jeff McNeil and Michael Conforto about ready to rejoin the team.
• Christian Arroyo: There was a stretch when he started eight straight at second base, but that playing time has dried up. Over the last few days, Enrique Hernández (.650 OPS), Marwin Gonzalez (.574 OPS), Danny Santana (.485 OPS), and Arroyo (.758 OPS, .529 OPS over the last week) have split time in center field and/or second base. No good reason has been given for Arroyo sitting and struggling. Maybe his recent hand injury is acting back up.
• Yandy Díaz: He’s back to part-time at-bats with Ji-Man Choi off the IL and Mike Brosseau and Joey Wendle in a third base platoon. Additionally, he’s not exactly forcing himself into the lineup by hitting .255 AVG, 2 HR, and 0 SB on the season.
• Steven Duggar: San Francisco had six games against righties so it was a great week to roster Duggar (.315/.382/.577, 36% K%). He’s unstartable this next week with the Giants only having five games and it’s projected they’ll face three lefties.
• Danny Mendick: He’s started nine straight at second base while batting ninth. During that stretch, he’s hitting .250/.364/.357 with 0 HR and 0 SB.
• Albert Pujols: On the weak side of a first base platoon with Matt Beaty since Bellinger and Muncy are on the IL. When playing, Pujols is providing some power (10 HR) and not much else.
Catchers
• Max Stassi: There is no reason Stassi (.310/.395/.577, 5 HR) should be on the wire in any league. Catcher is a mess and he’s one of the 10 best right now in the league.
Hitting Prospects
• Cal Raleigh: The 24-year-old catcher is hitting .344/.397/.648 with 7 HR and 2 SB in AAA.
| Name | Prev Own% | Current Own% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson LF CHC | 39% | 44% | 5% |
| Miguel Andujar LF NYY | 38% | 46% | 8% |
| Amed Rosario SS CLE | 34% | 52% | 18% |
| Brendan Rodgers SS COL | 33% | 37% | 4% |
| Adam Duvall RF MIA | 31% | 33% | 2% |
| Odubel Herrera CF PHI | 30% | 32% | 2% |
| Brandon Belt 1B SF | 29% | 33% | 4% |
| Jesus Sanchez LF MIA | 26% | 36% | 10% |
| J.P. Crawford SS SEA | 25% | 29% | 4% |
| Max Stassi C LAA | 22% | 42% | 20% |
| Luis Urias SS MIL | 22% | 25% | 3% |
| Myles Straw CF HOU | 18% | 21% | 3% |
| Yandy Diaz 1B TB | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Bobby Bradley 1B CLE | 15% | 33% | 18% |
| Steven Duggar CF SF | 9% | 11% | 2% |
| Jake Fraley LF SEA | 7% | 30% | 23% |
| Billy McKinney RF NYM | 7% | 12% | 5% |
| Albert Pujols 1B LAD | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Christian Arroyo 2B BOS | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Cal Raleigh C SEA | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Daniel Vogelbach 1B MIL | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| Chas McCormick LF HOU | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Danny Mendick SS CHW | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Abraham Toro-Hernandez 3B HOU | 1% | 4% | 3% |
Starters
• Ross Stripling: He’s definitely showing signs of life with a 3.63 ERA in June with matching ERA estimators. The key has been to not allow as many fly balls and walks while striking out a few more batters. His 19.4 K%-BB% is comparable to Bassitt, Berrios, and Cease. Stripling has improved to the point he’s likely a must-add in all leagues.
• Patrick Sandoval: As a starter this season, he has a 1.23 WHIP and 2.77 ERA. The improvement from when he was a reliever was dropping his walk rate to 2.8 BB/9. While his fastballs get hit around, his change (34% SwStr%, 54 GB%) and slider (21% SwStr%, 83% GB%) are near-elite pitches. Roster and start with no reservations.
• Bailey Ober: At this point, he’s a must-add across the board to see where he ends up. His 27.5 K%-BB% would rank 7th of 140 among all starters. His 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP might improve as his .357 BABIP drops. One issue with him will be home runs if his 23% GB% continues. Another one is that so far none of his non-fastballs have even an average swing-and-miss rate.
• Kolby Allard: A 2.57 ERA in 14 IP as a starter so far ERA estimators in the 3.50 range. His pitches per game have gone from 57 to 79 to 91 in his three starts. He’s doubled the usage of his curve from 9% to 19% that has a 13% SwStr% and 63% GB%. I didn’t expect Allard to have a breakout, but he has.
• Joe Ross: I’m more intrigued than I should be. Recently he’s been better and I dug around for any possible adjustments. Starting with his start on May 26th, he dropped the usage of his four-seamer. Here are some stats before and after that point.
| Time Frame | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | GB% | Zone% | 4-Seam Usage | Sinker Usage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before May 26 | 5.72 | 1.47 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 42% | 55% | 21% | 30% |
| On & After May 26 | 1.57 | 0.87 | 9.4 | 2.4 | 45% | 59% | 9% | 48% |
I’ll bite, hopefully he doesn’t bite back.
• Matt Manning: The Tigers promoted Manning and he has made only one start. The results were fine (3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). He didn’t miss many bats (3 K, 8% SwStr%). He struggled with home runs in the minors this year (3.1 HR/9) boosting his ERA to 8.07. It’s just such a small sample of data to offset all his prospect pedigree. A roster, but bench for me.
• Zach Thompson: He’s gotten a couple of starts so far and the results are encouraging. Projections already have him as a low-4.00 ERA pitcher. He has a 94-mph fastball. His cutter (15% SwStr%) and curve (13% SwStr%) are both missing bats so far. The biggest knock against him as a prospect was the lack of control, but in AAA he had a 1.2 BB/9 and it is 1.1 BB/9 so far in the majors. With the way the Marlins develop starting pitchers, I’m interested in the potential.
• Sammy Long: His 5.00 ERA looks unappealing, but it has been caused by a 38% LOB%. All the rest of his results look to be in line with his underlying stats so far. I can understand not trusting him enough to start, but he should be rostered.
• Erick Fedde: By posting a career-high 8.6 K/9 and career-low 0.9 HR/9, he has a 3.33 ERA and ERA estimators near 4.00. He’s turned on the production in June with a 21% K%-BB%. He might just be getting into a groove after spending time on the COVID-IL. I see him being started around two-thirds of the time.
• Chris Flexen 플렉센: It’s a boring profile of low strikeouts (5.9 K/9) and walks (1.6 BB/9) with some groundballs (49%). His ERA (4.12) and ERA estimators are each just over 4.00. Streaming option.
• Jake Odorizzi: He’s given up a decent number of home runs (1.8 HR/9), but that happens with just a 35% GB%. I don’t have a clue on how to evaluate him and I’m pretty sure he doesn’t know what is going on. Look at his pitch usage. It’s all over the place. I’m going to pass on rostering him until he picks a lain because I can see a few wrecks along the way.
• Johan Oviedo: There are not many positives with Oviedo, but his 4.6 BB/9 is just a killer on the WHIP (1.39), ERA (4.58), and Wins (0) fronts. While his velocity is trending down, he has thrown better in June with a 1.8 BB/9, 54% GB%, and 3.52 ERA. The biggest change is that he’s throwing more strikes with his Zone% going from 48% to 57%. I’m interested, but not buying in as much compared to the above starters.
• Vladimir Gutierrez: A .206 BABIP has his WHIP (1.09) and ERA (2.74) in check. Nothing in his profile points to him suppressing hits, so a blowup is on the way when his BABIP regresses and he keeps walking batters (3.9 BB/9). Because of his low strikeout rate (7.4 K/9), his ERA estimators are in the 5.00 range. Roster with extreme caution.
• Cal Quantrill: Such a tough pitcher to evaluate. For most of the season, he threw out of the bullpen with a 1.88 ERA. While starting, it’s been three starts with a 7.00 ERA but most of that was from one start where he allowed five runs and only recorded one out. One issue is that he hasn’t thrown over 60 pitches this season. He just seems to have issues navigating a lineup multiple times with his ERA going from 3.86 to 5.16 to 11.66 for each time through the order. Monitor for progress.
• Eric Lauer: Even though the 9.8 K/9 is enticing, he gives up too many walks (3.6 BB/9) and home runs (2.2 HR) to remain rosterable. He looked like the walks were down, but he’s had eight in his last 9 IP. The sub-4.00 xFIP and SIERA might point to better days … maybe.
• Tony Santillan: He’s struggled in his two starts so far (4.70 ERA and 1.83 WHIP). He’s getting burnt by the combination of home runs (2.4 HR/9) and walks (5.9 BB/9). He was pitching great in AAA (12.5 K/9, 1.08 WHIP, 2.51 ERA), but like many rookie pitchers, those results haven’t yet translated to the majors.
• Jon Lester: There is no way I can recommend him and his 4.09 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. His 6% K%-BB% is 6th worst in the league. His 82% LOB% (career 75% LOB%) will regress and his ERA will glide up to his ERA estimators near 5.00.
• Griffin Canning: It’s just too many walks (3.9 BB/9) and home runs (2.0 HR/9) to be any more than a streaming option. He needs to get one of the two under control.
• Joey Lucchesi: He was pitching great in June (1.20 ERA and 1.00 WHIP), but is now on the IL with elbow inflammation.
• Tucker Davidson: He’s on the IL with a forearm injury. While his 3.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP look enticing, regression is coming as seen by his .222 BABIP and ERA estimators in the 4.50 range.
• Zach Davies: The only reason I could find for him being added was the start against Miami. Those who gambled were rewarded with an 8 ER, 2 K, 3 BB, and 7 H in 6 IP (12.00 ERA and 1.67 WHIP). His 3% K%-BB% is the second-worst in the league (min 40 IP).
• Alec Mills: Mills has been unusable this season with a 6.11 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. I have no idea why he was still being rostered at all.
Starting Prospect
• Hunter Greene: Just one AAA appearance but in AA he had a 13.2 K/9, 1.00 WHIP, and 1.98 ERA in 41 IP.
• Shane Baz: Just one AAA appearance but in AA he had a 13.5 K/9, 0.73 WHIP, and 2.48 ERA in 32 IP.
• Cade Cavalli: Just one AA appearance but in High-A he had a 15.7 K/9, 0.89 WHIP, and 1.77 ERA in 40 IP.
| Name | Prev Own% | Current Own% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tucker Davidson SP ATL | 40% | 47% | 7% |
| Zach Davies SP CHC | 33% | 46% | 13% |
| Jake Odorizzi SP HOU | 31% | 40% | 9% |
| Griffin Canning SP LAA | 30% | 32% | 2% |
| Jon Lester SP WAS | 25% | 27% | 2% |
| Matt Manning SP DET | 24% | 33% | 9% |
| Joe Ross SP WAS | 22% | 30% | 8% |
| Vladimir Gutierrez SP CIN | 21% | 51% | 30% |
| Chris Flexen RP SEA | 19% | 23% | 4% |
| Hunter Greene RP CIN | 17% | 21% | 4% |
| Ross Stripling SP TOR | 13% | 32% | 19% |
| Sam Long RP SF | 10% | 37% | 27% |
| Alec Mills RP CHC | 9% | 12% | 3% |
| Shane Baz SP TB | 9% | 11% | 2% |
| Cal Quantrill RP CLE | 7% | 11% | 4% |
| Cade Cavalli SP WAS | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| Erick Fedde SP WAS | 6% | 14% | 8% |
| Patrick Sandoval SP LAA | 5% | 17% | 12% |
| Joey Lucchesi SP NYM | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Kolby Allard RP TEX | 4% | 12% | 8% |
| Johan Oviedo SP STL | 4% | 10% | 6% |
| Eric Lauer SP MIL | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Tony Santillan SP CIN | 2% | 8% | 6% |
| Bailey Ober SP MIN | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| Zach Thompson P MIA | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Relievers – Saves based rankings
• Pete Fairbanks: Good reliever who sharing the closer’s role.
• Seth Lugo: Good reliever who is next in line for the closer’s role.
• Ryan Tepera: Good reliever who is next in line for the closer’s role.
• Zack Britton: Good reliever who is next in line for the closer’s role.
• Jonathan Loaisiga: Good middle reliever with no chance for a Save.
• Collin McHugh: Good middle reliever with no chance for a Save.
| Name | Prev Own% | Current Own% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Loaisiga RP NYY | 17% | 19% | 2% |
| Peter Fairbanks RP TB | 14% | 18% | 4% |
| Ryan Tepera RP CHC | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| Seth Lugo RP NYM | 7% | 10% | 3% |
| Zack Britton RP NYY | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Collin McHugh RP TB | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
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