Waiver Wire Targets: Week 6
It’s official, we are about one week into May and the availability of decent starting pitching has dried up. Also, there aren’t any new bullpens to attack for Saves. With few desirable pitchers available, hitters will be the focus of this report.
One small change I made was that I grouped the catchers together. They just didn’t fit in with the other hitters.
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Hitters
• Harrison Bader: I’m intrigued with him to the point I think he’s a must-add in all formats to see if some adjustments are real. It has only been 29 PA so far but he has a 14% K%, less half his career rate (29% K%). He’s being more selective at the plate 20% o-swing% (25% on his career) and making more contact (83%, 75% for his career). These adjustments and just regression with his .150 BABIP would boost his batting average into a respectable range. Combining the batting average boost, with his speed (2 SB) and power (3 HR, .385 ISO) profile, he could end up as a well-rounded addition. Or the plate discipline could immediately degrade.
• Josh Harrison: In 2017 was the last time he was a full-time player when he hit 16 homers and stole 12 bases. At the end of 2017, he broke his hand and dealt with a major shoulder and hamstring injury. He might just be getting healthy and fantasy managers need to enjoy his well-rounded production while they can. It helps that he has a career-best walk and strikeout rate.
• Josh Rojas: He’s been on fire (1.162) after getting a second chance on April 15th. One issue is that the minor league stolen bases may not come as his Sprint Speed has dropped from 76% percentile (28.1 ft/s) to 53% percentile (27 ft/s).
• Willie Calhoun: Initially I miss evaluated Calhoun, but I think he’s a must-add in all more formats to see if the results (.338/.403/.492) can continue. I’m encouraged by career bests in his walk (8%) and strikeout rate (14%) while still getting to some power (3 HR).
• Pavin Smith: An insanely boring profile (3 HR, 1 SB, .264 AVG, 1B and OF qualified) that is playing each game. While he’s not going to help a manager in any category, he’s not going to hurt them either.
• Austin Hays: He’s playing every day. He’s hit four home runs. His .260 is a plus this season. While not exciting, all those traits have value.
• Nico Hoerner: On the IL, but expects to return Friday. So far this season he’s been a nice source of batting average (.389) and steals (3). These results are in line with his prospect reports. If he wants to take a step forward, he needs to add some power.
• Tyler O’Neill: In roto, he has been helpful in providing power (5 HR) and (3 SB) in limited playing time (80 PA). The problem is that he’s only walked twice with 26 strikeouts over that same time and it shows with his .275 OBP. His value is format-dependent.
• Robbie Grossman: An OBP or points league gem with the .360 OBP to go with the speed (7 SB) and some power (2 HR). In batting average leagues, he’s a drag with the .204 AVG. He’ll continue to lead off every day and be a decent source of steals.
• Jurickson Profar: He’s not hitting for a good average (.238) but it’s right at his career average. Also, there is not much power (.079 ISO, 1 HR), but his five steals are enticing for anyone needing stolen bases.
• Luis Urías: He’s been surprisingly serviceable if the .233 AVG can be absorbed. He’s not going to lose playing time with his .343 OBP and power (3 HR). It’s nothing elite, but he’s a nice bench bat in deeper leagues.
• Brandon Crawford: A weird profile so far this season. He’s been three for three on the bases with his career-high being seven steals. In the previous four seasons, he was 11 for 25 on the bases. Also, his Sprint Speed (24.9 ft/s) is in the 11th percentile. The power (6 HR) is a little more believable since his 38% GB% would tie for a career-low. His .238 AVG and .330 OBP are in line with his career numbers, so he continues to be more valuable in OBP or points leagues. Just a lot of stats going in a lot of directions.
• Lorenzo Cain: He’s off the IL and sort of playing (started four of six games). It’s so tough to gauge his talent after sitting out last season and missing time already this one. An add and bench option.
• Mike Tauchman: Since joining the Giants, he leading off against righties and still in the lineup against lefties. That said, he’s just been OK this season with 1 HR, 2 SB, and a .244 AVG. A 33% K% is limiting his upside. While his value is up, it’s still not average.
• Leury Garcia: He has started nine of the last ten games and looks to be a regular until the White Sox find some outfield help. He’s a replacement-level hitter (career .643 OPS) who can provide double-digit steals if given a full season of plate appearances. Upside is 2019 (8 HR, 15 SB, .279 AVG).
• Travis Shaw: He’s hitting for power (5 HR, .173 ISO) while qualified at both corner positions. He provides no other value and is a batting average drag (.212).
• Josh Naylor: He’s playing and hitting OK (2 HR, 1 SB, .253 AVG). He’s got the feeling a min bid replacement level outfielder. An acceptable injury fill-in.
• Brandon Belt: He has feasted in Colorado so far this season (.321/.441/.750, 4 HR). Otherwise, he’s hitting .203/.326/.405 with two homers. It’s tough to see him as anything more than a streaming option.
• Yadiel Hernandez: He’s started 10 of 11 games while hitting (.302/.367/.395, 1 HR, 2 SB). While he’ll continue to play through the weekend with Juan Soto able to DH (@NYY), he might be headed to the bench when back in a NL park. Just keep an ear out for Washington’s plans where a big boost to Hernandez’s value would be Soto in center field.
• Matt Duffy: He has started eight of the last ten games since Bryant has moved to the outfield. The playing time may go away once Happ comes off the IL on Friday. He’s hitting for a decent average (.296, .283 on his career) with no power (0 HR, .056 ISO) and three stolen bases. He provides a decent skillset if playing.
• Miguel Andújar: He had a nice breakout season in 2018 (27 HR, .297 AVG) but has struggled with injuries and playing time since then. He was just promoted to try to play an acceptable first base while Luke Voit is on the mend. Voit in on a minor league rehab assignment so he should be back soon. To me, Andújar is at best a one-week rental.
• Matt Beaty: He’s started six of the last 10 games and will likely start the next two since the Dodgers are at an AL park (LAA). Historically, he’s not walked but is this season with a 14% BB% (.419 OBP). A reasonable strikeout rate (19%) and good BABIP (.346) has his average up (.286). There is just no power (.086 ISO) or speed. A replacement level bat who isn’t playing, so not rosterable.
• Ryan Zimmerman: He’s in a platoon with Josh Bell and is crushing lefties (.385/.385/.577). Nice bench piece in a daily lineups league.
• Jake Marisnick: Started four straight when Happ and Pederson were hurt but headed back to the bench now that Pederson is healthy.
Catchers
• William Contreras: The Atlanta prospect has two months to show off his talent with Travis d’Arnaud on the IL. The 23-year-old has always hit for average and shown some power. Right now he has the profile of Yan Gomes and if he gains any power, he could hit for power like his brother, Wilson.
• Yan Gomes: I like Gomes since he’s not a sink in batting average (.266, .247 for his career) with the gains possibly sticking with a career-low strikeout rate (13%). Additionally, he’s chipped in four home runs.
• Kyle Higashioka: With Gary Sanchez struggling, Higashioka is catching half the time and hitting for some power (4 HR). The problem is that the league adjusted to his hot start (1.476 OPS in his first nine games) and he is hitting .514 OPS since then.
• Willians Astudillo: He’s a decent batting average-power combo but needs playing time to be valuable. With Sano coming off the IL, first base, where he’s played 10 of the last 12 games, won’t’ be an option. Playing time is key for his value.
• Tucker Barnhart: Enjoy the .296 AVG while it last because a 38% K% and normal BABIP (currently .474) will tank it. He’s a fine catcher but no underlying stats point to any kind of breakout.
• Jacob Stallings: He has a boring profile but has a decent batting average (.253 in 2021, .260 for his career). This year he’s helping in on-base leagues with a 17% BB%.
• Mike Zunino: He continues to hit like Zunino, home runs (6) and a low batting average (.222).
• Dom Nuñez: All power (5 HR), but a 39% K% is killing any other value he could provide.
• Daulton Varsho: The catcher eligibility is intriguing for an outfielder, but he’s just not getting anything close to full-time at-bats. He’s been in nine games and only started three of them. He’s averaging fewer than 2 PA per game. Also, he’s just been hitting OK (.267/.267/.467) during that time.
• Andrew Knizner: He got a chance to shine with Molina on the IL and he’s failed (.208 AVG, .540 OPS, 0 HR, 0 SB). At least add a catcher with some talent.
| Name | Previous Own% | Current Own% | Change% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner 2B CHC | 40% | 49% | 9% |
| Willie Calhoun DH TEX | 39% | 50% | 11% |
| Jurickson Profar LF SD | 37% | 40% | 3% |
| Tucker Barnhart C CIN | 35% | 46% | 11% |
| Austin Hays LF BAL | 30% | 34% | 4% |
| Tyler O’Neill LF STL | 27% | 51% | 24% |
| Travis Shaw 3B MIL | 26% | 28% | 2% |
| Dom Nunez C COL | 24% | 54% | 30% |
| Pavin Smith RF ARI | 23% | 31% | 8% |
| Kyle Higashioka C NYY | 20% | 28% | 8% |
| Lorenzo Cain CF MIL | 20% | 22% | 2% |
| Brandon Belt 1B SF | 18% | 25% | 7% |
| Daulton Varsho CF ARI | 17% | 23% | 6% |
| Willians Astudillo 1B MIN | 16% | 24% | 8% |
| Yan Gomes C WAS | 15% | 18% | 3% |
| Luis Urias SS MIL | 14% | 20% | 6% |
| Josh Rojas SS ARI | 13% | 48% | 35% |
| Mike Zunino C TB | 12% | 24% | 12% |
| Josh Harrison 2B WAS | 12% | 20% | 8% |
| Brandon Crawford SS SF | 11% | 15% | 4% |
| Robbie Grossman LF DET | 10% | 12% | 2% |
| Jacob Stallings C PIT | 9% | 13% | 4% |
| Josh Naylor RF CLE | 8% | 11% | 3% |
| Miguel Andujar LF NYY | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Mike Tauchman RF SF | 7% | 17% | 10% |
| Andrew Knizner C STL | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Harrison Bader CF STL | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| Ryan Zimmerman 1B WAS | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| William Contreras C ATL | 3% | 19% | 16% |
| Jake Marisnick CF CHC | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Leury Garcia LF CHW | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Yadiel Hernandez RF WAS | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Matt Beaty LF LAD | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| Matt Duffy 3B CHC | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Starters
• Shane McClanahan: In his limited time in the majors, McClanahan’s stuff has been amazing (11.4 K/9, 1.13 WHIP, 2.25 ERA), but he’s only averaging 4 innings and 61 pitches per start. For now, he’s a must-add in the hope he starts going at least five innings and starts qualifying for a Win. Gamble on the talent.
• Cole Irvin: He’s been good (3.09 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 8.7 K/9) with no BABIP luck (.313). His CBS ownership just doubled so it might be too late to add him.
• Adbert Alzolay: He’s making two pitches work (10.4 K/9, 0.88 WHIP, 4.50 ERA) with his ERA taking a hit from a 60% LOB%. I’d probably be higher on him but his velocity is down over 1 mph from last year and he just has the two pitches (1st TTO: 2.25 ERA, 2nd TTO 4.91 ERA).
• Mike Foltynewicz: His 16.4 K-BB% is 42nd among qualified starters, so he should be a consideration is all leagues. Home runs have been an issue (2.5 HR/9). Home runs should not be a surprise with his 36% GB% and nearly two-pitch repertoire (1st TTO: 1.2 HR/9, 2nd: 5.1 HR/9).
• Tyler Anderson: He been a fine pitcher (3.24 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 8.4 K/9) so far this season by leaning on his fastball (6% SwStr%) less and cutter (12% SwStr%) more.
• Tony Gonsolin: According to reports he’s now two to three weeks away while being stretched out for a rotation spot. If a team has room, Gonsolin is a decent stash.
• Garrett Richards: Over his last two starts, he threw more strikes (45% Zone% to 52%, 7.0 BB/9 to 0.8 BB/9) after reworking his delivery. Worth a dart throw while still healthy.
• Adrian Houser: I’m still expecting the blowup, but he’s making the 59% GB% work to a 3.52 ERA. He’s a fine option to stream knowing the 6.2 K/9 might not be enough to keep up in the standings.
• José Ureña: The results have been acceptable so far with a 1.26 WHIP and 3.53 ERA. He’s getting 60% groundballs by going heavy sinker (60% GB%)-slider (62% GB%). Besides the career-high groundball rate, he has a career-high strikeout rate (7.1 K/9). While I feel I should dismiss the results, he continues to be productive.
• Eric Lauer: It has been just two starts but there are several noticeable improvements. His fastball velocity is up 1 mph. He’s almost doubled the use of his cutter (15% SwStr%, 30% GB%). He’s attacking the strike zone more (45% Zone% to 57% Zone%) and walking almost no one (1.6 BB/9). And he’s done it against the Phillies and Dodgers so it wasn’t a couple of cupcakes. Potential sleeper.
• Carlos Martinez: He’s been able to limit walks (2.2 BB/9) and hits (.230) BABIP that help to offset his 5.0 K/9. He’s struggling a bit while I’m writing this and should see his ERA go over 4.00 after tonight. With ERA estimators near 5.00 and the low strikeout rate, he’s just a streaming option for now.
• Luis Garcia: On the surface, he looks to be a sleeper, but the .214 BABIP has helped him post a 1.01 WHIP and 3.28 ERA. He has been a perfectly serviceable starter. He may not stick in the rotation once Jake Odorizzi returns from the IL.
• Martín Pérez: To me, he’s a streamer, and the quality of opponent I’d trust him against has increased just a bit. His called-plus-swinging-strike rate is up 3% points and is in line with his 3% Zone% increase. Both have helped his strikeouts go to a career-high (8.8 K/9). I just don’t trust him yet.
• Matt Harvey: He’s like a poor man’s Carlos Martinez. He’s a bit lucky across the board (.283 BABIP, 0.8 HR/9, 68% LOB%) that have his 3.60 ERA about one run lower than his ERA estimators. A 47% GB% can only take him so far.
• Erick Fedde: On the positive, he has improved his strikeout rate (9.2 K/9) and is still getting groundballs. On the negative, his walk rate is at a four-year high and he’s still allowing home runs (1.3 HR/9). A streamer against the bottom quarter of the league.
• Hyeon-Jong Yang 양현종: One start and two relief appearances so far this season. The results have been good (2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.8 K/9). He’s using a fastball (90 mph), change, and slider combination. Monitor progress.
• Daniel Lynch: His Saturday start will weigh heavily on how fantasy managers value him. The demand has been muted some with a Tuesday start where he walked more batters than he struck out and allowed three earned runs in 4.2 innings of work.
• Vince Velasquez: While Velazquez keeps changing, the results stay the same (career ERA: 4.73, 2021: 4.91). Right now he got career-highs in strikeout rate, walk rate, home runs allowed, and groundball rate. The combination is not working.
| Name | Previous Own% | Current Own% | Change% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez SP STL | 39% | 54% | 15% |
| Tony Gonsolin SP LAD | 32% | 44% | 12% |
| Shane McClanahan SP TB | 28% | 62% | 34% |
| Cole Irvin SP OAK | 26% | 56% | 30% |
| Adbert Alzolay SP CHC | 23% | 38% | 15% |
| Daniel Lynch SP KC | 15% | 42% | 27% |
| Tyler Anderson SP PIT | 14% | 27% | 13% |
| Garrett Richards SP BOS | 14% | 24% | 10% |
| Mike Foltynewicz SP TEX | 13% | 17% | 4% |
| Adrian Houser SP MIL | 12% | 17% | 5% |
| Luis Garcia SP HOU | 9% | 17% | 8% |
| Matt Harvey SP BAL | 7% | 15% | 8% |
| Martin Perez SP BOS | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Jose Urena SP DET | 6% | 13% | 7% |
| Erick Fedde SP WAS | 5% | 12% | 7% |
| Eric Lauer SP MIL | 2% | 7% | 5% |
| Vince Velasquez RP PHI | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Hyun-jong Yang RP TEX | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Relievers (Saves based rankings)
• Stefan Crichton: OK pitcher who is the closer.
• Tejay Antone: Great pitcher who could be the closer.
• Jake Diekman: Good pitcher sharing a closer’s role.
• Rafael Dolis: OK pitcher who is the closer but hurt.
• Pete Fairbanks: Good pitcher who is sharing the closer’s role.
• Jeffrey Springs: Good pitcher who is sharing the closer’s role.
• Mychal Givens: OK backup to a struggling closer.
• Tyler Rogers: Good pitcher who’s working his way into being a closer.
• Trevor May: Good pitcher who is a backup for Saves.
• J.P. Feyereisen: OK pitcher who needs a couple of pitchers to falter to get Saves.
• Jonathan Loaisiga: Good middle reliever.
• Tim Hill: Good middle reliever.
• Yusmeiro Petit: OK middle reliever with a rubber arm.
• Jeurys Familia: OK middle reliever.
• Sam Hentges: It’s tough to define Hentges’s role. He’s sort of a bulk reliever (>2 IP per game). In nine innings so far, he’s allowed four homers to go with eight strikeouts and two walks.
| Name | Previous Own% | Current Own% | Change% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tejay Antone RP CIN | 35% | 37% | 2% |
| Jake Diekman RP OAK | 29% | 32% | 3% |
| Rafael Dolis RP TOR | 27% | 32% | 5% |
| Tyler Rogers RP SF | 22% | 27% | 5% |
| Jonathan Loaisiga RP NYY | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Stefan Crichton RP ARI | 15% | 20% | 5% |
| Peter Fairbanks RP TB | 15% | 19% | 4% |
| Yusmeiro Petit RP OAK | 9% | 18% | 9% |
| Trevor May RP NYM | 9% | 12% | 3% |
| J.P. Feyereisen RP MIL | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| Mychal Givens RP COL | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Sam Hentges RP CLE | 1% | 10% | 9% |
| Jeffrey Springs RP TB | 1% | 5% | 4% |
| Tim Hill RP SD | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Jeurys Familia RP NYM | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| Sam Coonrod RP PHI | 0% | 3% | 3% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
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