Rep. Roger Marshall (R. Kan.) is one of the top candidates in a tight GOP primary for Senate.
Photo: John Hanna/Associated PressAs Kansas Republicans prepare to vote Tuesday in a bitterly contested primary, some in the GOP are warning that a victory by the state’s former top election official, Kris Kobach, could cost their party a pivotal seat as they battle Democrats for control of the U.S. Senate.
Internal GOP polls show a “jump ball” between Mr. Kobach and Rep. Roger Marshall, a congressman from western Kansas, according to people familiar with the data.
A total of 11 Republicans are on the Senate primary ballot, including the wealthy founder of a Kansas plumbing company, Bob Hamilton, who has spent millions to fund his campaign. The victor will face the likely Democratic nominee, Barbara Bollier, a state senator who switched from Republican to Democrat in 2018.
Mr. Kobach previously won crowded Republican primaries in Kansas for Congress and governor, only to lose the general elections to Democrats. That history has some Republicans in Kansas and Washington nervous. Although Mr. Kobach has become a polarizing figure by pushing controversial measures to curb illegal immigration and alleged voter fraud, it isn’t his politics that concern those Republicans so much as what they see as his poor past campaign performance and weak fundraising.
Mr. Kobach said that he can beat Mrs. Bollier in the general election and that he feels momentum going his way in the primary. “There seem to be big crowds, people are very positive,” he said in an interview from the campaign trail.
“This election will be an interesting test of a ground war versus an air war,” he added. “I think our ground forces have the edge because we have so many volunteers statewide. But in the air war, Marshall has the edge because he’s got $5 million spent on his behalf from the Washington establishment.…I would say in most cities their ads are outnumbering ours 3 to 1.”
Kris Kobach is also running in the Kansas GOP primary for Senate, although some Republicans are concerned about his losing campaigns in past general elections.
Photo: John Hanna/Associated PressHeightening their concerns is a poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee from July 24-26. The poll asked Republican primary voters who they would vote for in the general election if Mr. Kobach were the nominee, according to a person familiar with the survey. About 54% said they would pick Kobach, but 29% chose Mrs. Bollier, the Democrat. About 6% indicated they would vote for a libertarian, and 10% said they were undecided.
Knowing that Democrats only have to flip three or four seats from red to blue to take back the chamber, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) had tried to recruit Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to run for the seat vacated by retiring Sen. Pat Roberts (R., Kan.), convinced that Mr. Pompeo would have easily defeated Mr. Kobach. Mr. Pompeo declined to run. After the state’s June 1 filing deadline passed, high-level Republicans stepped up their campaign to get Mr. Trump to endorse Mr. Marshall or at least renounce Mr. Kobach.
Last week on Air Force One, critics of Mr. Kobach made that pitch again, arguing that the outspoken opponent of illegal immigration could lose the general election, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
But Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas), who was on the flight, reminded Mr. Trump that Mr. Marshall had endorsed one of his primary opponents, John Kasich, in 2016. “To which Trump basically responded, ’Yeah, you’re right. I’m not going to do it,’ ” one of the people said.
That has led to deep frustration among some Kansas Republicans and national GOP strategists.
“The president has the ability to alter the trajectory of this race and prevent Kobach from becoming the nominee, but has resisted getting involved,” said one Republican official.
The White House didn’t comment. An aide to Mr. Cruz said he doesn’t comment on private conversations with the president.
In a sign of Kansas’ importance in the fight for the Senate, more than $17 million has poured into television and radio ads in the Senate race through the beginning of this week, with most aimed at Republican primary voters, according to political ad tracker Kantar/CMAG.
Nearly $12 million has been spent by super PACs and special-interest groups lined up for Messrs. Kobach or Marshall. That includes two super PACs—Plains PAC and Sunflower State PAC—which filed paperwork in such a way that allows them to keep their donors hidden until after the primary.
On Mr. Marshall’s side is Plains PAC, a group that has spent more than $3.3 million attacking Mr. Kobach. Mr. Kobach has accused Mr. McConnell and his allies of funding that group. Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC tied to Mr. McConnell, also has spent nearly $1.9 million helping Mr. Marshall. The Senate Leadership Fund has declined to comment on whether it has any relationship with Plains PAC.
The most outside support for Mr. Kobach—nearly $4.7 million—has come from Sunflower State PAC. The group has aired more than 2,000 television spots attacking Mr. Marshall and branding Mr. Kobach as the stronger conservative.
Some Republicans, including Mr. Marshall, have accused Democrats of being behind Sunflower State PAC, which uses the same ad buyer as Democratic super PAC Unite the Country. Kantar/CMAG also classifies the group as aligned with Democrats.
“They’re very motivated to have a weak candidate,” Mr. Marshall said in an interview. He said the negative ads against him might have had some success initially, narrowing the gap between himself and Mr. Kobach. But he said he was confident that “Kansans see through the smoke screen.”
In an interview, Mrs. Bollier pushed back on the idea that she only had a chance if Mr. Kobach is the GOP nominee. She said she could beat Mr. Marshall, too.
“We know that Roger Marshall votes with Donald Trump 98% of the time,” she said. “I don’t agree with really anyone 98% of the time. And I really think Kansans are looking for someone who is an independent thinker.”
Both the Kobach and Marshall campaigns are preparing for the possibility that the winner might not be known for days. Voters in Kansas have until the day of the primary to postmark their ballots, making it unlikely that all mail-in votes will be counted by Election Night. As of Saturday, the Kansas Secretary of State’s office had mailed 314,979 advance ballots, far more than the 54,109 sent in 2014 and 51,411 in 2018.
Write to Lindsay Wise at lindsay.wise@wsj.com and Chad Day at Chad.Day@wsj.com
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